New Governement in New South Wales? (Probably not).

We’re back again for another election, this time the NSW state election this Saturday. All 93 seats of the Legislative Assembly and half of the 42 Legislative Council seats are up for grabs. So let’s start in the lower house and, as we always do, with the pendulum.

Legislative Assembly

The Pendulum

The current distribution has the Coalition on 52 seats, which is five more than the 47 they need for a majority government. Six of these seats are ranked as ‘marginal’ under the traditional definition of holding a margin of less than 6% (Coogee, East Hills, Lismore, Monaro, Tweed and Upper Hunter). Four of these six are held by Nationals. It is therefore very possible that a swing against the government, and against the Nationals in particular, could see the Coalition lose the election. NSW has a healthy crossbench at present, however, and the ALP needs to gain 13 seats for an outright majority.

The following table shows the seats currently measured on a Coalition v ALP race, and the current margins. There are 75 of these traditionally 2-party seats.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	COALITION LEAD
Albury	LIB	13.2
Auburn	ALP	-5.9
Bankstown	ALP	-14.0
Barwon	NAT	12.9
Bathurst	NAT	15.8
Baulkham Hills	LIB	21.8
Bega	LIB	8.2
Blacktown	ALP	-13.2
Blue Mountains	ALP	-8.1
Cabramatta	ALP	-17.2
Camden	LIB	18.3
Campbelltown	ALP	-7.3
Canterbury	ALP	-15.7
Castle Hill	LIB	29.4
Cessnock	ALP	-22.0
Charlestown	ALP	-12.9
Clarence	NAT	9.7
Coffs Harbour	NAT	14.3
Coogee	LIB	2.9
Cootamundra	NAT	20.4
Cronulla	LIB	20.9
Drummoyne	LIB	18.8
Dubbo	NAT	20.4
East Hills	LIB	0.4
Epping	LIB	16.2
Fairfield	ALP	-17.8
Gosford	ALP	-0.2
Goulburn	LIB	6.6
Granville	ALP	-2.1
Hawkesbury	LIB	17.8
Heathcote	LIB	7.6
Heffron	ALP	-14.1
Holsworthy	LIB	6.7
Hornsby	LIB	18.9
Keira	ALP	-17.4
Kiama	LIB	8.7
Kogarah	ALP	-6.9
Ku-ring-gai	LIB	23.0
Lakemba	ALP	-21.6
Lane Cove	LIB	17.8
Liverpool	ALP	-20.9
Londonderry	ALP	-8.8
Macquarie Fields	ALP	-8.1
Maitland	ALP	-13.8
Maroubra	ALP	-10.8
Miranda	LIB	13.0
Monaro	NAT	2.5
Mount Druitt	ALP	-15.4
Mulgoa	LIB	9.7
Myall Lakes	NAT	8.7
Newcastle	ALP	-7.4
Northern Tablelands	NAT	27.1
Oatley	LIB	6.6
Oxley	NAT	10.9
Parramatta	LIB	12.9
Penrith	LIB	6.2
Port Macquarie	NAT	19.0
Port Stephens	ALP	-4.7
Prospect	ALP	-3.4
Riverstone	LIB	12.2
Rockdale	ALP	-4.8
Ryde	LIB	11.5
Seven Hills	LIB	8.7
Shellharbour	ALP	-17.0
South Coast	LIB	9.6
Strathfield	ALP	-1.8
Swansea	ALP	-13.0
Terrigal	LIB	9.0
The Entrance	ALP	-0.4
Tweed	NAT	3.2
Upper Hunter	NAT	2.2
Wakehurst	LIB	25.2
Wallsend	ALP	-20.8
Wollondilly	LIB	17.3
Wyong	ALP	-8.7

For the last week, there’s been a lot of buzz around the fact that the latest polling is 50:50. This is only half true. Newspoll does have the polling at 50:50 as announced on March 10. However, Reachtel has the number at a less headline-grabbing 49:51 split favouring Labor. These numbers are well within the margin of error of each other, but we will consider more than just the popularly quoted 50:50 number. In fact, since the change of Labor leadership both Newspoll polls have reported a 50:50 number, both Reachtel polls are 49:51, Essential also posted 49:51 and YouGov gave 48:52. These polls are consistent and date back to the change of leaders in November. Also, of course, a 50:50 split in the primary vote does not necessarily mean the election will be close. It depends on the distribution of those votes.

Last election, the result was 54:46, and the preceding Newspoll was 55:45. So we are looking at a general swing in the range of 4 to 7 percentage points (pp). Applied uniformly to the 75 seats above, these would predict the following:

SEAT	INCUMBENT	COALITION LEAD	4PP SWING	7PP SWING	PREDICTION
Albury	LIB	13.2	9.2	6.2	LIB
Auburn	ALP	-5.9	-9.9	-12.9	ALP
Bankstown	ALP	-14.0	-18.0	-21.0	ALP
Barwon	NAT	12.9	8.9	5.9	NAT
Bathurst	NAT	15.8	11.8	8.8	NAT
Baulkham Hills	LIB	21.8	17.8	14.8	LIB
Bega	LIB	8.2	4.2	1.2	LIB
Blacktown	ALP	-13.2	-17.2	-20.2	ALP
Blue Mountains	ALP	-8.1	-12.1	-15.1	ALP
Cabramatta	ALP	-17.2	-21.2	-24.2	ALP
Camden	LIB	18.3	14.3	11.3	LIB
Campbelltown	ALP	-7.3	-11.3	-14.3	ALP
Canterbury	ALP	-15.7	-19.7	-22.7	ALP
Castle Hill	LIB	29.4	25.4	22.4	LIB
Cessnock	ALP	-22.0	-26.0	-29.0	ALP
Charlestown	ALP	-12.9	-16.9	-19.9	ALP
Clarence	NAT	9.7	5.7	2.7	NAT
Coffs Harbour	NAT	14.3	10.3	7.3	NAT
Coogee	LIB	2.9	-1.1	-4.1	ALP
Cootamundra	NAT	20.4	16.4	13.4	NAT
Cronulla	LIB	20.9	16.9	13.9	LIB
Drummoyne	LIB	18.8	14.8	11.8	LIB
Dubbo	NAT	20.4	16.4	13.4	NAT
East Hills	LIB	0.4	-3.6	-6.6	ALP
Epping	LIB	16.2	12.2	9.2	LIB
Fairfield	ALP	-17.8	-21.8	-24.8	ALP
Gosford	ALP	-0.2	-4.2	-7.2	ALP
Goulburn	LIB	6.6	2.6	-0.4	TOSSUP
Granville	ALP	-2.1	-6.1	-9.1	ALP
Hawkesbury	LIB	17.8	13.8	10.8	LIB
Heathcote	LIB	7.6	3.6	0.6	LIB
Heffron	ALP	-14.1	-18.1	-21.1	ALP
Holsworthy	LIB	6.7	2.7	-0.3	TOSSUP
Hornsby	LIB	18.9	14.9	11.9	LIB
Keira	ALP	-17.4	-21.4	-24.4	ALP
Kiama	LIB	8.7	4.7	1.7	LIB
Kogarah	ALP	-6.9	-10.9	-13.9	ALP
Ku-ring-gai	LIB	23.0	19.0	16.0	LIB
Lakemba	ALP	-21.6	-25.6	-28.6	ALP
Lane Cove	LIB	17.8	13.8	10.8	LIB
Liverpool	ALP	-20.9	-24.9	-27.9	ALP
Londonderry	ALP	-8.8	-12.8	-15.8	ALP
Macquarie Fields	ALP	-8.1	-12.1	-15.1	ALP
Maitland	ALP	-13.8	-17.8	-20.8	ALP
Maroubra	ALP	-10.8	-14.8	-17.8	ALP
Miranda	LIB	13.0	9.0	6.0	LIB
Monaro	NAT	2.5	-1.5	-4.5	ALP
Mount Druitt	ALP	-15.4	-19.4	-22.4	ALP
Mulgoa	LIB	9.7	5.7	2.7	LIB
Myall Lakes	NAT	8.7	4.7	1.7	NAT
Newcastle	ALP	-7.4	-11.4	-14.4	ALP
Northern Tablelands	NAT	27.1	23.1	20.1	NAT
Oatley	LIB	6.6	2.6	-0.4	TOSSUP
Oxley	NAT	10.9	6.9	3.9	NAT
Parramatta	LIB	12.9	8.9	5.9	LIB
Penrith	LIB	6.2	2.2	-0.8	TOSSUP
Port Macquarie	NAT	19.0	15.0	12.0	NAT
Port Stephens	ALP	-4.7	-8.7	-11.7	ALP
Prospect	ALP	-3.4	-7.4	-10.4	ALP
Riverstone	LIB	12.2	8.2	5.2	LIB
Rockdale	ALP	-4.8	-8.8	-11.8	ALP
Ryde	LIB	11.5	7.5	4.5	LIB
Seven Hills	LIB	8.7	4.7	1.7	LIB
Shellharbour	ALP	-17.0	-21.0	-24.0	ALP
South Coast	LIB	9.6	5.6	2.6	LIB
Strathfield	ALP	-1.8	-5.8	-8.8	ALP
Swansea	ALP	-13.0	-17.0	-20.0	ALP
Terrigal	LIB	9.0	5.0	2.0	LIB
The Entrance	ALP	-0.4	-4.4	-7.4	ALP
Tweed	NAT	3.2	-0.8	-3.8	ALP
Upper Hunter	NAT	2.2	-1.8	-4.8	ALP
Wakehurst	LIB	25.2	21.2	18.2	LIB
Wallsend	ALP	-20.8	-24.8	-27.8	ALP
Wollondilly	LIB	17.3	13.3	10.3	LIB
Wyong	ALP	-8.7	-12.7	-15.7	ALP

But, as noted, four of the crucial seats are Nationals, not Liberals. Unfortunately, every poll since the last election has treated the two parties as a single block so we cannot look at the NAT:ALP swing specifically. Lismore is an oddity already, as a Nationals v Greens race. The other three would fall to the ALP even under a 4% swing. A closer look at these seats will have to wait until the last round of analysis, but I’ve marked them as TOSSUPs for now.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	COALITION LEAD	4PP SWING	7PP SWING	PREDICTION
Albury	LIB	13.2	9.2	6.2	LIB
Auburn	ALP	-5.9	-9.9	-12.9	ALP
Bankstown	ALP	-14.0	-18.0	-21.0	ALP
Barwon	NAT	12.9	8.9	5.9	NAT
Bathurst	NAT	15.8	11.8	8.8	NAT
Baulkham Hills	LIB	21.8	17.8	14.8	LIB
Bega	LIB	8.2	4.2	1.2	LIB
Blacktown	ALP	-13.2	-17.2	-20.2	ALP
Blue Mountains	ALP	-8.1	-12.1	-15.1	ALP
Cabramatta	ALP	-17.2	-21.2	-24.2	ALP
Camden	LIB	18.3	14.3	11.3	LIB
Campbelltown	ALP	-7.3	-11.3	-14.3	ALP
Canterbury	ALP	-15.7	-19.7	-22.7	ALP
Castle Hill	LIB	29.4	25.4	22.4	LIB
Cessnock	ALP	-22.0	-26.0	-29.0	ALP
Charlestown	ALP	-12.9	-16.9	-19.9	ALP
Clarence	NAT	9.7	5.7	2.7	NAT
Coffs Harbour	NAT	14.3	10.3	7.3	NAT
Coogee	LIB	2.9	-1.1	-4.1	ALP
Cootamundra	NAT	20.4	16.4	13.4	NAT
Cronulla	LIB	20.9	16.9	13.9	LIB
Drummoyne	LIB	18.8	14.8	11.8	LIB
Dubbo	NAT	20.4	16.4	13.4	NAT
East Hills	LIB	0.4	-3.6	-6.6	ALP
Epping	LIB	16.2	12.2	9.2	LIB
Fairfield	ALP	-17.8	-21.8	-24.8	ALP
Gosford	ALP	-0.2	-4.2	-7.2	ALP
Goulburn	LIB	6.6	2.6	-0.4	TOSSUP
Granville	ALP	-2.1	-6.1	-9.1	ALP
Hawkesbury	LIB	17.8	13.8	10.8	LIB
Heathcote	LIB	7.6	3.6	0.6	LIB
Heffron	ALP	-14.1	-18.1	-21.1	ALP
Holsworthy	LIB	6.7	2.7	-0.3	TOSSUP
Hornsby	LIB	18.9	14.9	11.9	LIB
Keira	ALP	-17.4	-21.4	-24.4	ALP
Kiama	LIB	8.7	4.7	1.7	LIB
Kogarah	ALP	-6.9	-10.9	-13.9	ALP
Ku-ring-gai	LIB	23.0	19.0	16.0	LIB
Lakemba	ALP	-21.6	-25.6	-28.6	ALP
Lane Cove	LIB	17.8	13.8	10.8	LIB
Liverpool	ALP	-20.9	-24.9	-27.9	ALP
Londonderry	ALP	-8.8	-12.8	-15.8	ALP
Macquarie Fields	ALP	-8.1	-12.1	-15.1	ALP
Maitland	ALP	-13.8	-17.8	-20.8	ALP
Maroubra	ALP	-10.8	-14.8	-17.8	ALP
Miranda	LIB	13.0	9.0	6.0	LIB
Monaro	NAT	2.5	-1.5	-4.5	TOSSUP
Mount Druitt	ALP	-15.4	-19.4	-22.4	ALP
Mulgoa	LIB	9.7	5.7	2.7	LIB
Myall Lakes	NAT	8.7	4.7	1.7	NAT
Newcastle	ALP	-7.4	-11.4	-14.4	ALP
Northern Tablelands	NAT	27.1	23.1	20.1	NAT
Oatley	LIB	6.6	2.6	-0.4	TOSSUP
Oxley	NAT	10.9	6.9	3.9	NAT
Parramatta	LIB	12.9	8.9	5.9	LIB
Penrith	LIB	6.2	2.2	-0.8	TOSSUP
Port Macquarie	NAT	19.0	15.0	12.0	NAT
Port Stephens	ALP	-4.7	-8.7	-11.7	ALP
Prospect	ALP	-3.4	-7.4	-10.4	ALP
Riverstone	LIB	12.2	8.2	5.2	LIB
Rockdale	ALP	-4.8	-8.8	-11.8	ALP
Ryde	LIB	11.5	7.5	4.5	LIB
Seven Hills	LIB	8.7	4.7	1.7	LIB
Shellharbour	ALP	-17.0	-21.0	-24.0	ALP
South Coast	LIB	9.6	5.6	2.6	LIB
Strathfield	ALP	-1.8	-5.8	-8.8	ALP
Swansea	ALP	-13.0	-17.0	-20.0	ALP
Terrigal	LIB	9.0	5.0	2.0	LIB
The Entrance	ALP	-0.4	-4.4	-7.4	ALP
Tweed	NAT	3.2	-0.8	-3.8	TOSSUP
Upper Hunter	NAT	2.2	-1.8	-4.8	TOSSUP
Wakehurst	LIB	25.2	21.2	18.2	LIB
Wallsend	ALP	-20.8	-24.8	-27.8	ALP
Wollondilly	LIB	17.3	13.3	10.3	LIB
Wyong	ALP	-8.7	-12.7	-15.7	ALP

There are a whopping 18 seats not considered above because they do not fall into the typical Coalition-Labor contest. These can be broken down into 4 main classes: Coalition-Greens races, Labor-Greens races, races against Independents, and the seat of Orange.

Coalition-Greens Races

There are 8 seats considered to be a race between the Coalition and the Greens. As above, it would be nice to treat the Coalition parties separately, but polling does not allow it. Fortunately, the raw numbers make this unnecessary. In all six seats where there is a Liberal-Greens contest, the Liberals have a lead of more than 20 percentage points and are almost guaranteed to hold on. Only the two Nationals’ races (Ballina and Lismore) are close.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	COALITION LEAD
Nationals v Greens
Ballina	GRN	-3.1
Lismore	NAT	2.9
Liberal v Greens
Davidson	LIB	28.8
Manly	LIB	24.5
North Shore	LIB	21.2
Pittwater	LIB	25.7
Vaucluse	LIB	22.9
Willoughby	LIB	24.4

The bad news is that this suggests there is a difference between the performance of the Liberal and National parties, or at least attitudes are very different in Nationals seats to those in Liberal seats. This confirms the need for caution using Coalition polling uniformly in NSW.

In both seats, interestingly, the results would have been closer in a NAT-ALP contest than NAT-GRN. This shows how crucial it is for the Greens to out-poll the Labor party (which they only just managed in 2015) and that the ALP is also in with a shot in each seat. District polling suggests support for the Nationals has fallen in Lismore and Ballina is already in Greens’ hands. Then again, the ALP has been campaigning against the Greens quite determinedly and have gained a slight swing so they might sneak ahead in either seat. The Greens incumbent in Ballina has to be an advantage there, and the retirement of the incumbent Nationals member in Lismore makes me want to mark it as changing hands.

In the good old days, I’d predict Ballina for the Greens and leave Lismore as a tossup. Forced to pick, I’m giving both to the Greens.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	COALITION LEAD	PREDICTION
Nationals v Greens
Ballina	GRN	-3.1	GRN
Lismore	NAT	2.9	GRN
Liberal v Greens
Davidson	LIB	28.8	LIB
Manly	LIB	24.5	LIB
North Shore	LIB	21.2	LIB
Pittwater	LIB	25.7	LIB
Vaucluse	LIB	22.9	LIB
Willoughby	LIB	24.4	LIB

Labor-Greens Races

As mentioned above, the ALP has been campaigning against the Greens and might have had a slight swing (from 34:10 in 2015 to a possible 36:10 in Newspoll and a consistent 34:10 in Reachtel). Interestingly, though, the Greens vote does not appear to have dropped. Either way, based on state-wide polling I wouldn’t expect a dramatic swing.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	ALP LEAD
Balmain	GRN	-4.7
Newtown	GRN	-9.3
Summer Hill	ALP	10.5

Balmain is the only one of these three that would appear marginal on the 2015 numbers, but this is not necessarily that straight forward when you have a possible three-corner fight. In seats where the Greens are incumbent, they get the bonuses of name recognition and being viewed as a genuine option. For this reason, I am having Balmain and Newtown remain with the Greens. ALP’s strong lead against the Greens and an even stronger defeat of the Coalition make this a safe pick for Labor.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	ALP LEAD	PREDICTION
Balmain	GRN	-4.7	GRN
Newtown	GRN	-9.3	GRN
Summer Hill	ALP	10.5	ALP

What’s the Deal with Orange?

The seat of Orange is currently held by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, making it an oddity. This is the result of a very close (50.1:49.9) 2016 by-election, so may be an anomaly. On the other hand, the SFF legitimately out-performed the ALP and will now be seen as a legitimate option. Obviously, polling isn’t available to help out here. The seat was previously held by the Nationals.

Even though the SFF is a conservative party, they can expect to pick up support from Labor and Greens voters who refuse to support the Coalition if they remain in the final two. There will be a little more contest with the Conservative party running, though, and possibly greater ALP support with the prospect of a changing government. Therefore, I’m going to take a completely unfounded guess that the ALP will outlast the SFP, which will see the Nationals reclaim the seat easily.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	PREDICTION
Orange	SFF	ALP

Independents and Tossups

Six seats are races involving independents. Three have a large margin to the incumbent party (two Nationals and a Labor) and don’t represent a strong Independent so much as a completely underwhelming performance from opposition parties.

The other three are held by Independents with comfortable margins. These are unlikely to suffer much from the very party-vs-party focussed campaign, and the members for Sydney, Wagga Wagga and Lake Macquarie are all recontesting in 2019. All are well placed to hold their seats.

SEAT	INCUMBENT	DOMINANT PARTY	PARTY LEAD	PREDICTION
Lake Macquarie	IND	ALP	-10.7	IND
Murray	NAT	NAT	22.7	NAT
Sydney	IND	LIB	-8.1	IND
Tamworth	NAT	NAT	10.0	NAT
Wagga Wagga	IND	LIB	-9.6	IND
Wollongong	ALP	ALP	8.0	ALP

The Story So Far

That leaves us with a largely unchanged pendulum:

SEAT	INCUMBENT	PREDICTION
Albury	LIB	LIB
Auburn	ALP	ALP
Ballina	GRN	GRN
Balmain	GRN	GRN
Bankstown	ALP	ALP
Barwon	NAT	NAT
Bathurst	NAT	NAT
Baulkham Hills	LIB	LIB
Bega	LIB	LIB
Blacktown	ALP	ALP
Blue Mountains	ALP	ALP
Cabramatta	ALP	ALP
Camden	LIB	LIB
Campbelltown	ALP	ALP
Canterbury	ALP	ALP
Castle Hill	LIB	LIB
Cessnock	ALP	ALP
Charlestown	ALP	ALP
Clarence	NAT	NAT
Coffs Harbour	NAT	NAT
Coogee	LIB	ALP
Cootamundra	NAT	NAT
Cronulla	LIB	LIB
Davidson	LIB	LIB
Drummoyne	LIB	LIB
Dubbo	NAT	NAT
East Hills	LIB	ALP
Epping	LIB	LIB
Fairfield	ALP	ALP
Gosford	ALP	ALP
Goulburn	LIB	TOSSUP
Granville	ALP	ALP
Hawkesbury	LIB	LIB
Heathcote	LIB	LIB
Heffron	ALP	ALP
Holsworthy	LIB	TOSSUP
Hornsby	LIB	LIB
Keira	ALP	ALP
Kiama	LIB	LIB
Kogarah	ALP	ALP
Ku-ring-gai	LIB	LIB
Lake Macquarie	IND	IND
Lakemba	ALP	ALP
Lane Cove	LIB	LIB
Lismore	NAT	GRN
Liverpool	ALP	ALP
Londonderry	ALP	ALP
Macquarie Fields	ALP	ALP
Maitland	ALP	ALP
Manly	LIB	LIB
Maroubra	ALP	ALP
Miranda	LIB	LIB
Monaro	NAT	TOSSUP
Mount Druitt	ALP	ALP
Mulgoa	LIB	LIB
Murray	NAT	NAT
Myall Lakes	NAT	NAT
Newcastle	ALP	ALP
Newtown	GRN	GRN
North Shore	LIB	LIB
Northern Tablelands	NAT	NAT
Oatley	LIB	TOSSUP
Orange	SFF	ALP
Oxley	NAT	NAT
Parramatta	LIB	LIB
Penrith	LIB	TOSSUP
Pittwater	LIB	LIB
Port Macquarie	NAT	NAT
Port Stephens	ALP	ALP
Prospect	ALP	ALP
Riverstone	LIB	LIB
Rockdale	ALP	ALP
Ryde	LIB	LIB
Seven Hills	LIB	LIB
Shellharbour	ALP	ALP
South Coast	LIB	LIB
Strathfield	ALP	ALP
Summer Hill	ALP	ALP
Swansea	ALP	ALP
Sydney	IND	IND
Tamworth	NAT	NAT
Terrigal	LIB	LIB
The Entrance	ALP	ALP
Tweed	NAT	TOSSUP
Upper Hunter	NAT	TOSSUP
Vaucluse	LIB	LIB
Wagga Wagga	IND	IND
Wakehurst	LIB	LIB
Wallsend	ALP	ALP
Willoughby	LIB	LIB
Wollondilly	LIB	LIB
Wollongong	ALP	ALP
Wyong	ALP	ALP

This shows the Liberals on 30, the Nationals on 12 and Labor on 37. That’s a gain for Labor at the expense of the Coalition, but not enough for either side to form a majority. There are 4 Greens seats that would likely side with the ALP dividing the house 42:41 with a very slight Coalition lead. There are three Independents who may well hold the balance of power, depending on how the remaining 7 tossups fall.

The ALP needs 6 of these to take government by majority. The Coalition needs 5. It all comes down to Goulburn, Holsworthy, Monaro, Oatley, Penrith, Tweed, and Upper Hunter.

Goulburn, Holsworthy, Monaro, Oatley, Penrith, Tweed, and Upper Hunter

Goulburn: This seat has a moderate margin of 6.6% to the Liberals that should fend off all but the worst of polled trends, but it is vulnerable. Pru Goward has been the only incumbent since the seat was re-established in 2007, so there is little history to rely on. A strong primary vote in 2015 suggests Goulburn will likely weather this storm unless the swing is larger than polling suggests. LIB HOLD.

Holsworthy: Holsworthy was first contested last election, so there is little precedent to rely on. The margin is a moderate 6.7%, but the Liberals almost won the seat outright with a primary vote of 49.5%. There’s really not much to go on, but that’s an impressive opening score, so I’m tipping the Libs to hold this one too. LIB HOLD.

Monaro: Monaro has a mixed National and Labor history, marking this as one of the seats the ALP will really want to pick up. Monaro is likely going to be a litmus test for Labor’s viability at forming government, so it’s my ‘one to watch’. This one really comes down to how the Nationals are polling, which is largely disguised in the available data. The margin is only 2.5, though, so unless the Nats are doing considerably better than the Liberals or can break Monaro out of the trend, I think Labor might carry this. ALP GAIN.

Oatley: This seat has some Labor in its history, but the Liberals won this on primary votes alone last time. That suggests people actually like the Liberals here, rather than simply disliking the ALP, and that should play in the Coalition’s favour this time. It’ll also need a swing towards the larger end of the predictions to shift this one. Forced to pick, I’ll back the Libs to win here. LIB HOLD.

Penrith: Penrith has plenty of Labor in its past, but the Libs had a lead of more than 10 percentage points in the last election. Even with the Greens vote, the Coalition easily took this, and to lose it will take a larger swing. Certainly not safe, but probably safe enough for the Liberal Party. LIB HOLD.

Tweed: The Greens do comparatively well in Tweed; at least they did in 2015. Combined with the ALP they beat the Nats on primary votes, leaving everything to the minor party voters to decide. This is one of the more likely ALP wins on the list, and a seat they’ve held previously. Based on very little, I’m controversially backing the Labor party here. ALP GAIN.

Upper Hunter: Upper Hunter was close in 2015, and no doubt the Labor Party would love to take it because it has been a National’s seat since before the Nationals existed. But for that reason, I think Labor may have come close to maximum support last election and I’m expecting the Nationals to be returned just like they have been for 87 years. NAT HOLD.

Conclusion

So the final prediction looks like this:

SEAT	INCUMBENT	PREDICTION
Albury	LIB	LIB
Auburn	ALP	ALP
Ballina	GRN	GRN
Balmain	GRN	GRN
Bankstown	ALP	ALP
Barwon	NAT	NAT
Bathurst	NAT	NAT
Baulkham Hills	LIB	LIB
Bega	LIB	LIB
Blacktown	ALP	ALP
Blue Mountains	ALP	ALP
Cabramatta	ALP	ALP
Camden	LIB	LIB
Campbelltown	ALP	ALP
Canterbury	ALP	ALP
Castle Hill	LIB	LIB
Cessnock	ALP	ALP
Charlestown	ALP	ALP
Clarence	NAT	NAT
Coffs Harbour	NAT	NAT
Coogee	LIB	ALP
Cootamundra	NAT	NAT
Cronulla	LIB	LIB
Davidson	LIB	LIB
Drummoyne	LIB	LIB
Dubbo	NAT	NAT
East Hills	LIB	ALP
Epping	LIB	LIB
Fairfield	ALP	ALP
Gosford	ALP	ALP
Goulburn	LIB	LIB
Granville	ALP	ALP
Hawkesbury	LIB	LIB
Heathcote	LIB	LIB
Heffron	ALP	ALP
Holsworthy	LIB	LIB
Hornsby	LIB	LIB
Keira	ALP	ALP
Kiama	LIB	LIB
Kogarah	ALP	ALP
Ku-ring-gai	LIB	LIB
Lake Macquarie	IND	IND
Lakemba	ALP	ALP
Lane Cove	LIB	LIB
Lismore	NAT	GRN
Liverpool	ALP	ALP
Londonderry	ALP	ALP
Macquarie Fields	ALP	ALP
Maitland	ALP	ALP
Manly	LIB	LIB
Maroubra	ALP	ALP
Miranda	LIB	LIB
Monaro	NAT	ALP
Mount Druitt	ALP	ALP
Mulgoa	LIB	LIB
Murray	NAT	NAT
Myall Lakes	NAT	NAT
Newcastle	ALP	ALP
Newtown	GRN	GRN
North Shore	LIB	LIB
Northern Tablelands	NAT	NAT
Oatley	LIB	LIB
Orange	SFF	ALP
Oxley	NAT	NAT
Parramatta	LIB	LIB
Penrith	LIB	LIB
Pittwater	LIB	LIB
Port Macquarie	NAT	NAT
Port Stephens	ALP	ALP
Prospect	ALP	ALP
Riverstone	LIB	LIB
Rockdale	ALP	ALP
Ryde	LIB	LIB
Seven Hills	LIB	LIB
Shellharbour	ALP	ALP
South Coast	LIB	LIB
Strathfield	ALP	ALP
Summer Hill	ALP	ALP
Swansea	ALP	ALP
Sydney	IND	IND
Tamworth	NAT	NAT
Terrigal	LIB	LIB
The Entrance	ALP	ALP
Tweed	NAT	ALP
Upper Hunter	NAT	NAT
Vaucluse	LIB	LIB
Wagga Wagga	IND	IND
Wakehurst	LIB	LIB
Wallsend	ALP	ALP
Willoughby	LIB	LIB
Wollondilly	LIB	LIB
Wollongong	ALP	ALP
Wyong	ALP	ALP

But no one cares about that. The real question is who will win government, and based on these numbers the Coalition will make exactly 47—just enough for a majority. Even if they don’t, the ALP only has 39 predicted and another 4 for the Greens. They would need to win a few surprise seats and then sway the Independents to help them form a minority government. That seems unlikely, but anything can happen on election day.

The Legislative Council

So then there’s the upper house. The NSW Legislative Council has 42 seats, 21 of which are contested each election. The current make-up of the chamber has the Coalition one seat short of an absolute majority, with the conservative Christian Democrats and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers to rely upon for that final vote. There is also an Animal Justice Party crossbencher, but that party is rather left-leaning, and an Independent, Jeremy Buckingham, but he was elected as a Greens candidate so probably doesn’t find much common ground with the government.

Current party distribution in the NSW Legislative Council

Stripping away the currently contested positions, we see the Coalition’s dominance greatly diminished, with the Liberal-National block and the Labor-Greens block both holding nine seats. This is because 2011, when the current candidates were elected, was a very strong year for the Coalition. It will be hard for them to preserve this position in 2019.

Continuing members of the NSW Legislative Council

The abolition of ticket voting before the 2003 election drastically reduced the prominence of minor parties. Since then, the Coalition has never won less than seven seats (2003) in the upper house, and the ALP has never won less than five (2011). The Greens have always won two, except in 2011 when they won three, and the CDP and SFF have consistently won 1 each. Since this is not predicted to be a landslide one way or another, we would expect these parties to at least meet these minimums again short of a minor party facing some kind of catastrophe.

Projection including historic minimum returns for each party

Factoring these in, we see a closer but still Coalition-favouring spread. It is starting to look like the cross-bench will be both powerful and fragmented.

For the remaining five seats, we turn to the polling. While we have repeatedly seen issues with lower-house polling being applied to the upper house, the lower house numbers are the only ones we have. Both Newspoll and Reachtel have the Greens polling around 10%, which translates to the expected two seats, and a similar figure for ‘Other’ which presumably accounts for the CDP and SSF seats.

Labor is pegged at around 35% primary vote (Newspoll 36%, Reachtel 34.1%) which would amount to seven seats, rivaling the seven already assigned to the Coalition. Given the constant talk of how neck-and-neck this race is, it makes sense that both parties would be looking at picking up a similar number of seats.

The Coalition, polled as a single group, received 35.7% support in the Reachtel poll, worth 7 seats, and 40% in Newspoll, worth over 8 seats. It is therefore hard to tell whether to give the Coalition another seat, but it has to be said they are more likely to gain one than the ALP on these numbers and the Reachtel result is lower than any poll result for the Coalition since the ALP switched leaders in November. I’m therefore going to side with the Newspoll result and give an eighth seat to the Liberal-National Coalition.

One Nation has been polling well enough to show up in the polls as its own category since this time last year, in part due to their selection of high-profile Council candidate and former federal Labor leader Mark Latham. They are polling over 5%, worth 1 seat, and I would be surprised if they did not get this.

That leaves one seat open. I don’t expect any unmentioned minor party to emerge and snatch it, as none have the profile to generate this level of support. The CDP and SFF are already dependent of preference flows for around half of their first seat, so would be hard pressed to take it. One Nation is better placed, but will probably run out of steam shortly after claiming their first seat. And while the Animal Justice Party did monopolise the left-wing minor party options in 2015, with less than 2% of the vote I’m not convinced that wasn’t a fluke. The only other minor candidate with a shot would be the current Independent, Jeremy Buckingham, though he was elected as a Greens candidate and I’m not convinced we has the name recognition to win again without a party behind him. (People may have been seeing a lot of United Australia Party advertising recently, but they are really just focussed on the federal election.)

I think One Nation and the AJP are outside chances, but it’s more likely that the last seat will fall to a major(ish) party: Labor, Liberal, Greens or Nationals. We already gave the Coalition a dubious 8th so I’m doubtful they can make a ninth. Labor’s polling is closer to an 8th seat than the Greens’ is to a third, though I think the Greens have a pretty good shot and a precedent for winning a third seat.

I’m therefore giving the last seat to the ALP, but as always the final place is a wild contest, so in descending order of likelihood I’d suggest the alternatives: Greens, One Nation, Coalition and Animal Justice.

Prediction for the 2019 NSW Legislative Council

Farewell 2018 - Vic Review

Final, we have the Victorian election to review. 88 Legislative Assembly seats and 40 Legislative Council seats were up for election: the full Victorian parliament.

Legislative Assembly

74 seats, or 84.1%, were predicted correctly.

Seat	Prediction	Result
Albert Park	ALP	ALP
Altona	ALP	ALP
Bass	LIB	ALP
Bayswater	LIB	ALP
Bellarine	ALP	ALP
Benambra	LIB	LIB
Bendigo East	ALP	ALP
Bendigo West	ALP	ALP
Bentleigh	ALP	ALP
Box Hill	LIB	ALP
Brighton	LIB	LIB
Broadmeadows	ALP	ALP
Brunswick	ALP	GRN
Bulleen	LIB	LIB
Bundoora	ALP	ALP
Buninyong	ALP	ALP
Burwood	ALP	ALP
Carrum	ALP	ALP
Caulfield	LIB	LIB
Clarinda	ALP	ALP
Cranbourne	ALP	ALP
Croydon	LIB	LIB
Dandenong	ALP	ALP
Eildon	ALP	LIB
Eltham	ALP	ALP
Essendon	ALP	ALP
Euroa	NAT	NAT
Evelyn	LIB	LIB
Ferntree Gully	LIB	LIB
Footscray	ALP	ALP
Forest Hill	LIB	LIB
Frankston	ALP	ALP
Geelong	ALP	ALP
Gembrook	LIB	LIB
Gippsland East	NAT	NAT
Gippsland South	NAT	NAT
Hastings	LIB	LIB
Hawthorn	LIB	ALP
Ivanhoe	ALP	ALP
Kew	LIB	LIB
Keysborough	ALP	ALP
Kororoit	ALP	ALP
Lara	ALP	ALP
Lowan	NAT	NAT
Macedon	ALP	ALP
Malvern	LIB	LIB
Melbourne	ALP	GRN
Melton	ALP	ALP
Mildura	NAT	IND
Mill Park	ALP	ALP
Monbulk	ALP	ALP
Mordialloc	ALP	ALP
Mornington	LIB	LIB
Morwell	ALP	IND
Mount Waverley	LIB	ALP
Mulgrave	ALP	ALP
Murray Plains	NAT	NAT
Narracan	LIB	LIB
Narre Warren North	ALP	ALP
Narre Warren South	ALP	ALP
Nepean	LIB	ALP
Niddrie	ALP	ALP
Northcote	GRN	ALP
Oakleigh	ALP	ALP
Ovens Valley	NAT	NAT
Pascoe Vale	ALP	ALP
Polwarth	LIB	LIB
Prahran	GRN	GRN
Preston	ALP	ALP
Richmond	ALP	ALP
Ringwood	LIB	ALP
Ripon	ALP	LIB
Rowville	LIB	LIB
Sandringham	LIB	LIB
Shepparton	IND	IND
South Barwon	ALP	ALP
South-West Coast	LIB	LIB
St Albans	ALP	ALP
Sunbury	ALP	ALP
Sydenham	ALP	ALP
Tarneit	ALP	ALP
Thomastown	ALP	ALP
Warrandyte	LIB	LIB
Wendouree	ALP	ALP
Werribee	ALP	ALP
Williamstown	ALP	ALP
Yan Yean	ALP	ALP
Yuroke	ALP	ALP

The 14 incorrect predictions were:

Seat	Prediction	Result
Bass	LIB	ALP
Bayswater	LIB	ALP
Box Hill	LIB	ALP
Brunswick	ALP	GRN
Eildon	ALP	LIB
Hawthorn	LIB	ALP
Melbourne	ALP	GRN
Mildura	NAT	IND
Morwell	ALP	IND
Mount Waverley	LIB	ALP
Nepean	LIB	ALP
Northcote	GRN	ALP
Ringwood	LIB	ALP
Ripon	ALP	LIB

Mildura and Morwell saw independents elected. Because it is not feasible to look into the prospects of every independent running in every seat, I accepted long ago that upsets of this nature are unpredictable in practical terms.

I had also noted at the foot of my predictions that, for unempirical reasons, I expected the greens to pick up a few seats not officially predicted, and singled out Melbourne as likely to be retained. I do not consider Melbourne or Brunswick to be surprises.

Eildon and Ripon were retained by Liberal incumbents against the swing and remain very narrow as a result. ABC has Ripon held by the Liberal party with 50.0% of the final count, meaning there were only a handful of ballots between the major parties in the end. Eildon is a little less precarious, but with 52.4% of the vote we came very close to being right in both cases, and I think these are acceptable mistakes.

Northcote was held by the Greens, but only as the result of a by-election, the Liberals did not contest. I do not think the lack of Liberal contest in that by-election makes that data unreliable, as traditional liberal voters would have allocated their votes exactly as their preferences in a contested election. However, the by-election may have been atypical for the focus it provided on local issues. The Greens certainly still poll well here, but despite the ABC indicating a swing in their favour (compared to the general election, not the by-election) they did finish second. I am in two minds as to whether this is a reason to be more cautious with by-election data and incumbents or just part of the usual statistical hurley-burley.

The remaining seven seats (Bass, Bayswater, Box Hill, Hawthorn, Mount Waverley, Nepean and Ringwood) are evidence that I underestimated the swing to the ALP in this election. It is true that this swing was far higher than most predicted, but being wrong en mass is little consolation. Previous work on predicting the size and distribution of swings is required, though past efforts have provided little encouragement. Nevertheless, these are seven seats out of 88, and a mid-80% accuracy overall is both typical and acceptable.

Legislative Council

The LegCo results were more chaotic by far.

As with all proportional, preferential votes, the final member from each division is always unpredictable, so the districts with scores of 4/5 are perfectly acceptable to me despite the patchwork of colours in the infographic above.

The total prediction score of 30/40 or 75% would be disappointing in a race of single-member seats like the Legislative Assembly, but this inherently difficult fifth-member prediction means a score above 80% would be outstanding. The remaining 20% are inevitably written off in almost every case as tossups for the same reason seats won by independents are not considered particularly concerning in the lower houses.

The areas of concern, then, are the Southern Metropolitan district and both the Northern and Western regional districts.

In South Metro, the ALP gained from the Greens, and the Reason Party (formerly the Australian Sex Party) took the scraps from both sides to earn the 5th seat. This is the first time a party outside of the major trio (ALP, LIB and GRN) have won a seat in South Metro and though they did get a mention in the prediction, this is unexpected based on the earlier polling. Similarly, for the Greens to consistently poll 90% of a quota historically would seem to guarantee them a seat, but this year they were closer to 77%. Both errors here demonstrate that historical data makes for poor predictions of the future, though the absence of alternative numbers is an issue we will struggle to overcome.

In the regional districts, the Liberals lost ground to several minor parties too--a cause of errors in the 5th seat of other districts also (Metro East and Metro South East in particular). Again, this is the errors of past data being used predictively. It is evident the Liberals' support from previous years was not present in 2018. One predicted shooters seat in Vic West was also lost as part of the general uncertainty and minor-party chaos of the 5th post, but I'm more impressed that I called them correctly in Vic East (and got a full 5/5 in that district).

The lessons of the Legislative Council predictions then are that tossups should be used liberally if this blog still handed those out, and that past data is poor predictively but more or less all that was available.