In focus...

Last week – before we were interrupted by the starter's gun on this, the final sprint to the election – we summarised our key data so far. This involved narrowing down the seats likely to be of most interest on September 7th. And by narrow down, I mean try to select the absolute cream of the crop, but like a wise man in a bookshop, end up compulsively hoarding half of the novels availible. If you think I am exagerating, go back and count. Last week's shortlist contains 75 of the 150 federal seats. This week we look at each of these seats more closely to determine which are the true battlegrounds of this contest and which are not.

New South Wales:

Banks has been singled out for special attention as a result of its current position on the pendulum, with only a 1.5% margin. However, banks has been ALP since it was created in 1949. It is possible that the seat is undergoing a transition towards the Coalition, but it is equally possible that this close-run race is a historical blip that we have passed. Either way, I suggest the ALP stands a good chance in Banks this year, and I do not consider this as close as others may. Right out of the blocks we have an example of how the Mackerras pendulum – useful though it is – is not the be-all and end-all of psephology, or of my feeble emulation of that science.
Bennelong is an interesting seat – a possible glimpse of the future of Banks in reverse. Bennelong had been consistently Liberal since it was founded in 49; consistently Liberal, that is, until the 2007 ALP landslide when PM John Howard lost the seat to Maxine McKew and withdrew from politics. One election later the seat returned to the Liberals and, although still on a margin of 3.12%, I would expect this to firm up over the short term to see the Coalition comfortably retain this seat.
Dobell, too, is at the short end of the pendulum (although not as close as the seats above, with a margin of 5.07%), but was determined to be a 'tossup' in my seat rundown. While this subjective rating implies that I consider this seat in play, it is important to note that the seat has been subject to the swings of public opinion more than Banks or Bennelong. From its creation in 1984 until 2001 it was an ALP seat – the last two elections of this period being the only times that Dobell has elected an incumbent not of the ruling party. The seat then supported the Howard Government until the 2007 landslide until it returned to the ALP. With this election as close as polling suggests, it follows that the near-bellwether of Dobell will be hotly contested, especially with the incumbent shifting from ALP to Independent after a scandal, thus erasing any incumbency benefits for Labor.
Eden-Monaro is famous as a bellwether seat, having always voted for the successful party since 1972. This variability was reflected in the Variable-Dependent Transparency Array, and the margin sits at 4.24%. As a to-ing and fro-ing seat keenly in tune with the general mood of the nation, this seat is (unsurprisingly) considered something of an important possible win for both parties.
Gilmore ranks here because (surprise, surprise) the margin is only 5.73. However the seat has been Liberal since 1996 – resisting the pro-ALP landslide of 2007 – and consistently Coalition since it was founded with the exception of 1993. With 9 out of 10 elections to the Coalition and a Liberal incumbent who resisted Rudd's popularity at its peak, Gilmore will not easily be taken by the ALP this year.
Greenway is an odd seat in terms of trends. Like many other seats it bounded joyfully onto our electoral stage in 1984. The seat stayed firmly with the ALP until 2004. It remained with the Liberal from 2004 to 2010, neatly voting against the ALP during Rudd's highest of highs, but returning to Labor under Gillard. This broadly contradicts the general voting trends of the nation and, although its history has an undeniable pro-ALP slant, with a margin of 0.88% and an unpredictable voting history, who knows which way this seat will jump.
Hughes has a margin of 5.17% and an unpredictable voting history according to the VDTA. This is true, but these trends last for persistent periods of time. The seat was ALP form 69 to 96 (after a brief Liberal incumbency and an even earlier dalliance with Labor). From 1996 to the present, the seat has remained with the Liberal party, and I would expect that to continue this time around.
Kingsford Smith may have a margin of 5.16%, but it also has a history of voting Labor since foundation in 1949. I'm calling this one safe and moving on.
Lindsay is another of those seats from 1984. From 1984 to 1996, under the Hawke-Keating government, Lindsay voted ALP. It shifted with the nation to the Liberal Party under Howard and returned to Labor for the Rudd-Gillard years. As a bellwether since creation, it is not surprising both parties consider Lindsay an important seat to carry. Add in the 1.12% margin and Lindsay has everything to play for.
Macarthur may have a margin of 3.53% and a long-term variable history, but as the VDTA demonstrates, the seat is reasonably stable for the Liberal Party. It has voted for the Libs since 1996 and will probably continue in that vein this year.
Macquarie has been oscillating between major parties since 1901, and switching about all the more rapidly in recent times. The margin of 1.54% added to this mix makes the seat a clear Category 1: Critical seat, and very much in play.
McMahon is one of the two NSW seats on this list outside the marginal range of the pendulum. The history of this electorate has been consistently ALP*. McMahon is one of those inner urban seats that pretty well fits the Young Labor demographic. Yet I pinned this as a tossup. Many would expect this seat to stay with Labor. I would not be surprised about that myself. *However, this seat was created last election and there is not enough data yet to provide certainty. This seat replaced Prospect, which was safe ALP since it was founded in 69.
Page brings a little flavour to this list, with a Category 1: Critical rating off the back of a 1.83% margin and a volatile history of changing hands every two or three years, and yet practically no chance of falling to the Libs. Page will be a close-run contest, I am sure, but between Labor and the Nationals.
Parramatta has a margin of 4.37%, a variable history and, with the exception of Toongabbie, contains only Liberal state electorates – all pointing to an uphill battle for the ALP to retain this seat. Definitely one to watch.
Paterson is a Liberal seat nominated for this list with a 5.33% margin and variable history, although it has been reliably won by the Libs since 2001, pre-Rudd. I would not expect this seat to change hands, although this is far from certain. Consider this an informal prediction.
More importantly, since its re-founding in 1993, Paterson has only been won by people named Bob: Bob Horne (ALP) twice and Bob Baldwin (LIB) twice. If Labor continues to run people called Jim and Giovanna, how can they expect to win?
Reid is retained by Labor with a margin of 2.68%. This may look like a possible win for the Coalition, if it were not for the entire history for the seat (since 1922) being ALP (assuming we include Lang Labor’s first, second (Non-Communist) and third incarnations and ignore Charles Morgan’s brief defection to become Independent from 1958 until he was voted out… in 1958). Such a strong ALP history has to suggest that this seat will remain with Labor again, so I am scratching this from the close seats list.
Richmond is, with McMahon, one of the two NSW seats not within the marginal range of the pendulum, although at 6.99% it is just outside. What makes this seat interesting is that Richmond is traditionally National territory. With the exception of 5 elections this seat has been National since 1922 and Coalition (or Coalition-predecessors) since 1901. Reid contains the state seat of Tweed and parts of Ballina and Lismore. All three are held by Nationals by margins of over 30%. I don’t know how Labor took this seat, but I would not be surprised to see them lose it in four weeks’ time. Worth watching since it is either changing hands or defying my expectations.
Robertson has been won by Labor in the last two elections by two different Labor candidates, after a consistent Liberal incumbency during the Howard years. Otherwise, the seat has been ALP for decades. On the other hand, all of the state seats in Robertson are Liberal held, and the margin is sitting at 1%. All in all, Roberson is a master of mixed messages: that seat that gives you its phone number and tells you not to call, then phones you to tell you it never wants to speak to you again because you didn’t have the courtesy to phone.
Seriously Robertson! What do you want?!

Northern Territory:

Lingiari is retained by Labor with a margin of 3.7%. The seat has only had one incumbent, and was founded in 2001. I feel the data is insufficient to make an argument for this seat being stable, although there is probably a good chance of Labor retaining this in the absence of a significant pro-liberal swing. With the low margin, this seat is probably worth watching.
Solomon was picked up on the VDTA for its lack of obvious trend (CLP for 2 elections, ALP for 1 and CLP for another), but is also noteworthy for its short history and 1.75% margin. The NT territorial government seats don’t offer a clear picture – largely a result of dividing a two-electorate territory into so many divisions. Let’s wait and see.

Queensland:

Blair is another example of a seat with a very short history. Prior to the two years under the Rudd-Gillard government, during which Blair was an ALP seat, the seat has been Liberal since it was founded during the Howard years. The seat is currently held by the ALP with a margin of 4.24%. To young to call, this has to be a seat to watch.
Bonner has only been around for three elections, electing a Liberal politician, then an ALP candidate, and then a LNQ incumbent. The seat shows up as noteworthy on the VDTA and is currently held by a margin of 2.82%. Potentially a very close race here.
Bowman, by contrast, is a “very safe” seat with a margin of 10.39% for the LNQ, who also won all of Bowman’s state divisions (and almost all of the other state divisions too). This seat is only listed here because it has a variable history from the early 60s onward which shows up on the VDTA. In reality this seat is safe for the LNQ.
Brisbane has been in focus in every media analysis I have read so far. This is largely the result of the LNQ incumbent holding this seat by a meagre 1.13%. The recent (and not so recent history) of the seat, however, is very pro-ALP. Although the LNQ won the seat in 2010, the ALP had held it for the 20 years prior. The 5-year Liberal incumbency before this is no more than a blip after the 17 sequential victories of the ALP from 1931 onwards. Since 1901, the ALP has controlled Brisbane for a total of 76 years. On the other hand, LNQ incumbency in this seat and all of its state divisions may be more than a relic of the radical anti-ALP swing following the deposal of Queensland’s own Kevin Rudd. And maybe not.
Capricornia, as things stand, is slightly Coalition leaning. This is in spite of a Labor incumbency, which is only held by 3.68%. Although the seat has been ALP since 1998, its sub-divisions were four LNQ seats, one ALP and one for Katter’s Australia Party. However, less objectively, it is important to remember that state Labor in Queensland has less seats than a small bus. This major anti-ALP swing may carry over into Capricornia this year, though this seems highly unlikely now that Rudd is back in the pilot seat. Objectively close, I would guess this is actually a reliable ALP win.
Dawson is marginal with only 2.43% of voters between the LNQ incumbent and defeat. The seat has a pretty firm Nationals background, however; a 12-election run since 1975 was only broken during the Kevin 07 landslide. The seat has now returned to the LNQ, where I would expect it to stay. That said, watch this space.
Dickson shows up on all radars. Its variable history raised a flag on the VDTA, and its 5.13% margin is a lot closer than the LNQ would like. The 5-year Lib/LNQ trend was noted to give the Coalition an edge here during the state summaries, but not enough to rule this as safe.
Fisher may have a mere 4.13% margin and be held by an Independent, but has only fallen to the ALP twice since it was founded in 1949. The current incumbent was elected as a LNQ member as well, so I’m quite confident in ignoring this seat as a safe Coalition win.
Flynn, on the other hand, has a very even history: one term ALP, one LNQ. The seat is held by 3.58% of the population, and is too young to be considered safe for any party.
Forde has a longer, but not much more decisive history. There is a slight Coalition bias (6 elections to 4), but with a 1.63% margin Flynn is clearly still in play.
Herbert seems to switch incumbents every 15 years or so (although after a 30 year ALP run ended in the late 50s there was a brief to-and-fro). This pattern was detectable in the VDTA. Throw in a 2.17% margin and it is possible the Liberal/LNQ’s 17 year run is at an end. For those who believe in electoral patterns, it is time for Herbert to change. The rest of us will have to wait and see.
Leichhardt, with a 4.55% margin and volatile recent history, is definitely worth watching. Further back, this was an ALP safe seat, but does this have any relation to the attitudes of the modern, LNQ held seat? I doubt it.
Lilley is held by the ALP by a mere 3.18%. This is a very low margin for a seat held by someone as high profile as Wayne Swan. The history is variable, but Coalition leaning. Since being founded in 1913, the most elections won in a row was 6, a feat achieved once by the ALP and twice by the predecessors of the LNQ. Add in the retirement of Mr Swan and bets are far from off for this seat.
Longman was considered, in the Queensland district rundown, to be volatile but safe for the LNQ. This seems a little odd off the back of a 1.92% margin, and there is easily potential for an ALP victory here. However of the seat’s 6 elections, 5 have been won by members of the Liberal or Liberal National Parties. Perhaps overly cautious, I’m going to call this in play.
Moreton must be one of the closest seats in the state, if not the country. Of the 89 state seats, only 7 were won by Labor. Two of these intersect with Moreton. However, Moreton is not an ALP stronghold. The seat has been around since federation, and the ALP has won Moreton at general federal elections only 4 times (6 including a so-called ALP Independent in 1901 and 1904). Yet, against the odds, the Incumbent is a member of the Labor Party. I’m struggling to get a feel for Moreton, so I have to call this one in play.
Oxley is marginal on the pendulum, with a 5.77% margin. However by any other standard the seat is safe ALP. Labor has won the seat at every election since 1961, excluding Pauline Hanson as an Independent in 1996. With 2 of its 5 constituent state seats being those rare ALP wins, Oxley will be incredibly unlikely to shift to the LNQ.
Petrie has a highly variable history and a margin of 2.51%. The VDTA, pendulum and district run down all put Petrie in the sights of both Labor and the Coalition. Enough said.
Rankin may have a margin of 5.41%, but of the 10 elections held in this seat, Labor has won 10, and the only state seat entirely contained by Rankin is Woodridge, one of those few that have a Labor incumbent. Rankin is only on this list because of its margin, and is probably a safe hold for Labor.
Wright, by contrast, is definitely not listed here for its margin, which is 10.15%. The seat history is not very informative, because this seat has only run in a single election. Every available indication certainly suggests an easy LNQ retain, but we shall have to wait and see.

South Australia:

Adelaide is currently held by Labor with a not-too-shabby margin of 7.69%. However the seat’s recent history is volatile, and its current political makeup is ambiguous. The state seats that intersect Adelaide are divided between 5 with Labor incumbents and 4 – including the two entirely contained within the federal seat – held by the Liberal Party. Although a maintenance of the status quo is expected, especially with Kate Ellis as its high-profile incumbent, such a volatile seat is more than capable of upsetting this prediction. I’m going to call this safe for now, and wait for this to blow up in my face.
Boothby is always trumpeted in my home state as a possible win for the ALP. With a 0.75% margin, it is not impossible. With a consistent liberal winning streak since 1949, it will be quite an upset if they pull it off. And the Libs only hold 4 of the 8 state seats that intersect with Boothby. However there is an argument to be made that this is about as pro-Labor as Boothby will get. I’m marking this as one to watch not because I think Labor is likely to carry the seat, but because if it is pulled of it will be the first time in over 25 elections.
Grey has shown up on this list because its long-term history does not provide an obvious trend on the VDTA. However, with a margin of 11.16% for the Liberal Party who have held the seat for two decades, and a distinct pro-Coalition lean in the state seats I don’t expect Grey to shift any time soon.
Kingston’s margin is 13.91% in favour of the ALP, and the state seats in the area are dominated by the Labor party. The seat is very volatile, however, and most elections I see at least one swing over 10%. If this seat is volatile enough, perhaps the Coalition stands a chance here. I doubt it, though, so despite ruling this a tossup in the state rundown I’m giving this to the ALP.
Makin is primarily on this list due to its volatile history – 4 ALP wins, 4 LIB wins and then 2 more ALP wins. On the VDTA this looks close, but with a 12.20% ALP margin and all five state seats held by Labor, I’m agreeing with the pendulum and the rundown to call this a safe ALP seat.
Sturt has been won by Christopher Pyne since 93 and by the Liberal Party since 72. I do not see a 3.43% margin and mixed state seat make up as reason enough to call this anything but a Liberal victory.
Wakefield is a seat of great contrasts. For every seat I have named as unlikely to fall based on past voting, it is important to remember seats like this. A run of 23 election victories by the Liberal Party was trumped by Labor in 2007 who now hold the seat by 11.95%. The seat was controlled by the ancestors of the Liberal Party from 1909 to 1938, only to switch to Labor, back to the UAP and back to Labor again in a 3-election period. It is not impossible that a similar blip may be occurring now, but a near-12% margin is one heck of a blip. I’m labelling this a Labor win, and a warning against relying too heavily on the past to predict the future.

Tasmania:

Bass has a variable history which showed up on the VDTA and in the run down. Labor currently holds the seat by 6.74%, and has the slightest of advantages based on historical results. As with all federal Tasmanian electorates the state seats offer very little indication of current voting patterns, since all five Federal divisions contain two ALP, two LIB and one GRN state seats. Slight ALP advantage here, but still within reach for the Coaltion.
Braddon is also a seat of great turmoil, although this time the ALP incumbent and his 7.48% margin is up against a slightly pro-Liberal history. Expect this one to be close.
Denison is the only marginal seat in Tasmania according to the pendulum, with Independent Andrew Wilkie holding on against the ALP by 1.12% of the population (two-candidate preferred). Before Wilkie, the ALP hold on this seat stretches back to 1987. Under the Hare-Clark system the Greens won the first state seat in Denison, followed by former state ALP Premier David Bartlett (replaced by Graeme Sturges in 2011, as Dr Kevin Bonham corrected me some weeks back). This may provide further evidence of a left-wing bias among voters indicating the Libs are unlikely to take this seat. As a former Greens candidate in Bennelong it is surprising that enough conservative, and particularly Liberal, preferences flowed to Wilkie to outrun Labor, however in the highly divisive campaign that looks set to start in Australia, it is not impossible that this may happen again. Although I can confidently say that the Coalition will not win in Denison, this is still a seat worth keeping an eye on.
Franklin shows up on the VDTA for an evenly-balanced history, but there is little else to support keeping it on this list. The ALP has held the seat since 1993 – throughout Howard’s golden years, and currently has a margin of 10.82%. The Coalition has held the seat for considerable periods of time in the past, and did elect a Liberal candidate first among its state seats. On the other hand, the other Liberal to win a seat came last of the five candidates, and one state seat is also held by Labor Premier Lara Giddings. I’m giving this one squarely to the ALP this year.

Victoria:

Aston is definitely marginal with a 1.76% on the pendulum. However the Liberal party has held the seat for over two decades, and controls all state seats in the area. I’m going to give Aston to the Libs at this point.
Bendigo has been ALP since 98 and has a clear ALP trend in its past voting record and state seat makeup. Despite a 5.93% margin, I’m confident in a Labor retain for this seat.
Bruce’s apparently even-handed history on the VDTA is the result of 6 ALP wins on top of 16 Liberal victories. The state seat makeup is varied, but with an ALP margin of 8.12% to bank on and an incumbent who has held the seat since 1996, Bruce is probably a safe ALP win.
Casey is held by a mere 1.48% margin, but with a Liberal victory in every election since 1984 I’m passing this one off as Coalition.
Chisholm’s history shows that a return to the Coalition is not out of the question in the long term, and with a 6.11% margin this year has a chance of making this happen. Triggering an interest on the VDTA, pendulum and state summaries, Chisholm will be worth watching.
Corangamite is indisputably marginal. 0.41% of the electorate is not where the ALP wants to be sitting on the pendulum, especially as prior to the Kevin 07 landslide the seat had been Liberal since 1944 and then Coalition forerunners since 1931. There is a slight ALP lean in the state seats, last elected in 2010, but as I said in the Victorian summaries, I think we are coming to the end of a Labor blip in this Coalition seat. However the Incumbent still needs to fall, so I’m calling this an important seat. If nothing else, it has to be the seat most likely to change hands this year.
Deakin was first contested in 1937 and has been won by Labor three times. Two of those times were 2007 and 2010, but I think this is another blip soon to be corrected. All state seats are Liberal. Labor’s margin is 2.41%. Another seat that may be a comfortable Liberal win, but still worth watching in case Mike Symon can hold out.
Dunkley has a habit of changing incumbents regularly, and after 6 years the time may be up for the Liberal Party. A 1.02% margin makes this a possible hand-changer.
Flinders has a clear Liberal lean in its history. Of all elections since 1901, Labor has won three (1929, 1952 and 1983). This gives the Libs a 10-election victory record to maintain, and with a 9.11% margin, this looks certain. This is perfectly safe for the Coalition and should never have made this list, except I accidentally read it as a Category 1 seat, when the Stable-Safe rundown rating actually makes it Category 3.
Gellibrand is another Category 3 that should not have made the list except for my inattention. With every election since its first in 1949 going to Labor, who also hold all of the state seats in the area and a comfortable 23.9% margin, not even the retirement of Nicola Roxin is likely to shake this seat.
Higgins is yet another Category 3 that should not be on this list. A near-perfect mirror of Gellibrand – Higgins has been won by the Libs in every election since foundation in 49 along with a strong pro-Lib collection of state seats – the current margin of 6.75% means that the pendulum rules this seat fairly safe. I do, too. I’m giving this seat squarely to the Coalition in 2013.
La Trobe has a pretty balanced mix of state seats, a variable state history, and first term Labor incumbent after two decades of Liberal representation. Most of all, however, the 0.91% margin makes La Trobe anyone’s seat (at least on a two-party preferred basis).
McEwen is another first-term ALP incumbent who has just shuffled off a period of Liberal control. The history provides little help in predicting this seat. The same may be said for the state divisions in the area. A 5.32% margin is not enough to keep Labor out of the woods in this situation. This one has to be considered in play at this point.
McMillan ticks all the boxes. 4.41% Margin. Variable long-term history. Highly variable short-term history. The state seats are all Coalition (3 Liberal, 2 National), but this dates from 2010 when the Libs also won the seat. McMillan can go either way, and without local polling one can only guess which.
Wannon is another Victorian seat that should not have made his list. Apparently I got a little slack with this state. A 7.29% margin is not great, but nor is it enough to raise warning flags. The seat has been Liberal since 55, and the Coalition holds three of the 4 state seats in Wannon. Safe Liberal.

Western Australia:

Brand has a 3.33% margin for Labor. It also has 100% Labor control of state seats and a track record of 100% ALP incumbents. I have no hesitation in calling this a Labor seat.
Canning has an even narrower margin of 2.19% and the VDTU indicates a much closer long-term history. The short term history is rather variable, too, and considering the trouncing Labor received earlier this year, the ALP is well represented in the state seats. All indications suggest that Labor’s fortunes in WA have drastically increased after the leadership change. This may not be enough to take Canning from the Libs, but it should make for an interesting contest.
Cowan has a particularly variable history: 3 ALP wins, followed by 2 Liberal victores, 3 more ALP incumbents and now 2 Liberal wins starting counterintuitively during the 2007 ALP landslide under “Rudd 1.0”. Throw in a 6.29% margin for the Liberal incumbent and a varied, slightly Labor-leaning state seat make-up in a heavily anti-ALP state election earlier this year and we may easily see Cowan cross the line.
Durack has a 3.67% margin for the Libs over the ALP. Since the seat only came into existence last election it is too early to award this seat based on past data, but the state seats show a heavy lean to the Nationals. We will just have to wait and see how Durack pans out, although I am unofficially tipping a Coalition win.
Fremantle’s 5.7% margin and 50-50 split of state seats between the Liberal and Labor Parties is not enough to shake my confidence that a 30-election ALP winning streak dating back to 1934 will continue. Enough said.
Hasluck is probably the most unstable seat in the election. The seat has changed hands every election since it was founded. The state seats that intersect Hasluck are divided evenly – 4 ALP, 4 Liberal. The seat has a margin of 0.57% for the Liberal party, and sends up flags on the VDTU, pendulum and state rundown measures, rating as a tossup – not even a Category 1 – on the latter. Anyone who thinks Hasluck is not a key seat is mad. Mad I say!
O’Connor was close-run in 2010, with a 3.56% margin. This is 3.56% for the Nats against the Libs. After a perfect Liberal record, the seat passed to the National Party in 2010. The Nationals also hold 5 state seats, compared to 1 Liberal and 1 ALP. I would not be surprised if this was close run between the Coalition parties in this election, but a Coalition victory is pretty well assured. Whether or not this is worth watching depends, I guess, on your interest in inter-Coalition contests.
Perth has been Labor since 1983 and has only a moderate tendency to change hands. The Coalition has a slight advantage according to the state seats, but remembering the strength of the anti-Labor swing which is not expected to be replicated federally, and noting that of the state seats entirely contained within federal Perth are Labor-held, I think even the 5.88% margin will be enough for Labor to hold the seat. Playing it safe, however, I’m going to admit that this one could still change hands.
Stirling has a 5.55% margin in favour of the Liberal Party, and a variable history that puts the ALP in striking range on a good year. Whether this year will be a good one for Labor remains to be seen, but for the moment I’m ruling Stirling in play.
Swan, finally, is a seat with a 2.53% margin and a volatile recent history. The state seats show a pro-Liberal attitude recently, but how much of this has been reversed is unknown. Enough, perhaps, to topple the Liberal incumbent. I’ll certainly be watching this one.

The Short Short List:

We have now reduced these 75 seats of interest – 50% of all federal seats – to 44 key seats, including O’Connor which is a pretty safe bet for the Coalition partys but exactly which Coalition party remains to be seen. These key seats are Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Lindsay, Macquarie, Page, Parramatta, Richmond and Robertson in New South Wales; Both Lingiari and Solomon in the Northern Territory; Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Petrie and Wright in Queensland; Boothby in SA; Bass, Braddon and Denison in Tasmania; Chisholm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, La Trobe, McEwen and McMillan in Victoria; and Canning, Cowan, Durack, Hasluck, O’Connor, Perth, Stirling and Swan in WA.

It's a Date!

I am boarding a plane in just over 12 hours, after which I am likely to be out of contact for a couple of weeks. As a result, the announcement of an election date -- September 7 -- has come just in the nick of time for me deliver a brief blog.

I would like to be able to say that, regardless of what one may think of my track record predicting election results, I can offer some certainties for the upcoming months by anouncing my intended schedule for the Infographinomicon. Sadly, past experience has demonstrated that I cannot even provide 100% reliable predictions of my own blog. Nonetheless, here is my intended calendar of events:

August 4 -- Election date anounced

August 5 -- Writs issued

August 10 -- Blog Post: An analysis of the interesting seats highlighted yesterday (Saturday 3/8)

August 12 -- Electoral rolls close (last day to enrol to vote)

August 15 -- Candidate rolls close (last day to put your name on the ballot)

August 16 -- Candidates announced

August 17 -- Blog Post: The candidates (Brief look at House of Representative Seats)

August 18 -- Blog Post: The candidates (South Australian Senate Seats)

August 19 -- Blog Post: The candidates (Western Australian Senate Seats)

August 20 -- Blog Post: The candidates (Victorian Senate Seats)

August 21 -- Blog Post: The candidates (Queensland Senate Seats)

August 22 -- Blog Post: The candidates (New South Welsh Senate Seats)

August 23 -- Blog Post: The candidates (Tasmanian Senate Seats)

August 24 -- Blog Post: The candidates (Territorial Senate Seats)

August 31 -- Blog Post: Discussion of polling data

September 6 -- Final day for Electoral predictions (possibly continuing into the early morning).

September 7 -- ELECTION DAY and TALLY NIGHT

September 8 - November 13 -- Blog Post: Review of predictions

The missing NSW seat run-down will be restored at some point during this period as well. [Editor: Nope. That one is gone for good, folks.] Following the conclusion of this years electoral analysis I will be uploading and backdating the few scraps of electoral prediction I produced before starting this blog for the sake of completion. There will be no new content during this time. After that this blog will be going dormant until the next election event, most likely the South Australian State Elections followed by the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly and TasLegCo 2014, the US Mid-Terms and the Victorian State Elections all next year.

The game, dear readers, is afoot at last!

Summaries of summaries of summaries.

Last week I finally concluded my electoral seat run down. Shortly after that my long awaited and lengthy NSW run down imploded. A reconstruction is currently underway. From scratch. Again.

This is something of a recurring problem, which is why it is convenient that I intend to effectively replicate all of my previous data this week. This is something of a summary to put us within striking distance of an informed, though inevitably flawed prediction at the drop of a hat.

Specifically this hat, dropped from around 43.5 megameters, whilst assuming constant gravity of 1G and air resistance comparable to a NASA wind tunnel.*

Variable-Dependent Transparency Array Results:

What, you thought the map with a silly name was gone for good?

Because the VDTA is somewhat subjective in as much as how one determines the average opacity, I have been a little simplistic with my analysis. I simply had the computer select all of the boxes from the corresponding data-dump which were 50-50 red and blue, within the tolerances of the Gimp select by colour tool.

These seats were:

Eden-Monaro, Hughes and Lindsey from NSW; Solomon from the NT; Bonner, Bowman, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt, Petrie and Wright from Queensland; Grey and Makin from SA; Bass and Franklin from Tasmania; Bruce, Chisholm and McMillan from Victoria; and Canning, Durack, Hasluck and Stirling from WA.

Herbert (QLD) and Robertson (NSW) also lost a noticeable number of pixels, so lets include them as well.

Coloured as in original, trend-based VDTA.

Margins Analysis:

When looking at margins I replicated the traditional post-election pendulum. It is not creative or unique, but it is a steadfast and useful tool. As I demonstrated, however, it is not perfect. The size of the margin is less critical, for example, in seats with traditionally less swing and potentially more critical in seats with a large 'others' vote. I may or may not get the time to develop tools to remedy these limitations before the election.

The pendulum is reproduced here:

Seat Run-Downs:

As discussed last week, the "Category 1 - Critical" seats are as follows:

Adelaide (SA), Bendigo (VIC), Blair (QLD), Braddon (TAS), Bruce (VIC), Canning (WA), Capricornia (QLD), Chisholm (VIC), Dawson (QLD), Denison (TAS), Dickson (QLD), Dunkley (VIC), Forde (QLD), Flinders (VIC), Gellibrand (VIC), Greenway (NSW), Herbert (QLD), Leichhardt (QLD), Lindsay (NSW), Longman (QLD), Macquarie (NSW), Makin (SA), McEwen (VIC), McMillan (VIC), O’Connor (WA), Page (NSW), Parramatta (NSW), Paterson (NSW), Petrie (QLD), Solomon (NT), Swan (WA), Wakefield (SA).

There are also several tossups:

Bass (TAS), Bonner (QLD), Brisbane (QLD), Cowan (WA), Dobell (NSW), Durack (WA), Flynn (QLD), Hasluck (WA), Kingston (SA), La Trobe (VIC), Lilley (QLD), McMahon (NSW), Moreton (QLD), Richmond (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Wright (QLD).

Others:

Other factors have been discussed throughout the year -- for example the role of the budget -- but I will not be focusing on these this week, because the above factors will form something of a baseline for the rest of our information to build from. There are also, of course, a great many factors and statistics not discussed here this year.

Seats to Consider:

The map below contains all of the above information. For that reason there is no need for a Data Dump this week.

These seats will receive further analysis next week in an automated post, while I am out of the office. It is important to note that not all of these seats will be key players in this election; many safe seats will have been highlighted under one of these approaches and will be dismissed next week. The really interesting seats will be those that are marked by all three measures, like Flynn in Queensland and Robertson in New South Wales.

As I said earlier, I will not be around to respond to any comments, so talk amongst yourselves for a while. Knowing my luck the election will be announced this week while I am unable to blog.

*By these calculations (based on the dimensions and weights provided here, the drag coefficients offered here, a little approximation of hat radius determined from its height, and the assumption that air resistance would flip the hat top-down and maintain this orientation) this hat should quickly reach terminal velocity and take 33 days - the minimum time between an election announcement and an election - to fall to earth.

Randall Munroe, eat your heart out!

Run out of run downs...

Election announcement speculation, like royal baby speculation and ALP leadership speculation before that, continues to punctuate the media. And media sources will keep on predicting an announcement until there is an announcement – and then promptly congratulate themselves on their insight and ability.

However, unlike most other speculation that takes the place of genuine news stories, there are some genuine reasons to suspect an announcement sooner rather than later. I have already discussed here some of the chief factors – more than a few weeks after Gillard’s promised September 14 date begins to look like desperately holding on to power, but to soon after taking the leadership looks like panic. We are currently in the golden period for an announcement. The earliest possible election date is August 31. The opportunity to carpe this diem elapses on Monday, and each subsequent Monday another date is scratched off the list: September 7, September 14, September 21, September 28. October 5 would be a nice option for me personally, getting to celebrate my birthday with a vote and a late night spent watching the national tallyroom, but I think that is drifting too far past the goldilocks period (no too early, not too late).

September 14, as has been pointed out here and elsewhere, is a poor choice because of a Jewish religious festival, which only leave four dates that I would consider reasonable options.

Two months ago we looked at the Labor budget and the Liberal-National Coalition’s response. Unable to simultaneously provide better programmes and greater savings, the Coalition surprised many commentators by supporting the budget. What this did was to undermine the Gillard government’s attempt to frame the discussion around their projects – the NIDS, Gonski and (to a lesser extent) the NBN among other programmes. The focus was shifted to the far more provocatively named Carbon Tax and Mining Tax, and later to immigration policy.

Rudd has since wrestled the attention back to where the ALP wants it by neutralising most of these issues. Leadership speculation seems to have finally ended – at least for the ALP.

There is ongoing suggestion of a Turnbull led Coalition emerging, but even the trigger-happy media is not going so far as to expect a shake up before the election. For all of his public support, the Liberal Party do not trust Turnbull enough to support him into the role that could land him the Prime Ministership within a month or two.

The uncertain election date encouraged the Coalition, wary of starting their campaign too vigorously too early, to keep their powder dry. This has allowed the ALP to nip their opponents’ chief arguments in the bud, undermining any ads that they had ready to go. The Carbon Tax will transition to an ETS, Labor has taken a much tougher stance on people smuggling and any suggestion that the ALP changes leaders more often than Abbott changes speedos is unlikely to gain traction after the changes to the Labor party’s rules regarding leadership selection. With the exception of the Mining Tax and the economy (which is actually doing fine, and will be discussed heavily over the next week or two with some important reviews due for release) Labor is ready for an election.

There is still uncertainty as to when the election will be locked in – and a continuing unawareness that the decision does not in fact rest with Rudd anyway. However, the time would seem to be drawing near so the next few weeks on this blog are going to be difficult to plan. I would expect, however, to begin summarising our data so far over the next week or so in preparation for predictions and punctuated with posts to ensure that you are well informed when you arrive at the ballot box. In that vein, I will spend the second half of this week’s post recapping the state-by-state summaries that bored you all stiff over the last month and a half.

Recapping the State-by-State Summaries that Bored You All Stiff Over the Last Month and a Half.

The above matrix synthesises the summaries into three distinct categories: Category 1 or ‘critical’ seats are those where the volatility of said seat significantly outweighs the security with which it held. These seats are not only in play, they are the seats that will more or less decide the election short of a massive landslide swing to one party or another. Category 2 ‘standard’ seats may still be in play, but have a distinct bias to a particular party. These are the seats that might fall in a landslide, but almost certainly not in the normal course of an election. These are generally quite volatile – and thus open to influence throughout the campaign, but with a fair bit of ground for one of the major parties to cover before they can pull of the necessary coup. Otherwise these are less easily swung (which in most cases simply means less swinging voters) but already close enough for that to be significant. Category 3 ‘bastions’ are the die-hard seats that in some cases have voted consistently for the same party since 1901. These are unlikely to be won by a non-incumbent party in even the most avalanche-esque elections. On top of these three categories are the tossups. These are the seats so closely balanced that I could not determine which party they could even be said to marginally support. These seats, therefore, are the most marginal of all and the first gains any major party is likely to try and win.

Colours below indicate the party towards which the seat was expected to pass under the previous posts (ALP, LIB, NAT, KAT), which is not necessarily the current incumbent’s.

Category 1: Critical

Adelaide (SA), Bendigo (VIC), Blair (QLD), Braddon (TAS), Bruce (VIC), Canning (WA), Capricornia (QLD), Chisholm (VIC), Dawson (QLD), Denison (TAS), Dickson (QLD), Dunkley (VIC), Forde (QLD), Flinders (VIC), Gellibrand (VIC), Greenway (NSW), Herbert (QLD), Leichhardt (QLD), Lindsay (NSW), Longman (QLD), Macquarie (NSW), Makin (SA), McEwen (VIC), McMillan (VIC), O’Connor (WA), Page (NSW), Parramatta (NSW), Paterson (NSW), Petrie (QLD), Solomon (NT), Swan (WA), Wakefield (SA).

Category 2: Standard

Ballarat (VIC), Bowman (QLD), Casey (VIC), Corangamite (VIC), Fisher (QLD), Franklin (TAS), Gilmore (NSW), Grey (SA), Griffith (QLD)*, Hindmarsh (SA), Hinkler (QLD), Hughes (NSW), Isaacs (VIC), Lingiari (NT), Macarthur (NSW), Maribyrnong (VIC), Moore (WA), Stirling (WA).

Category 3: Bastion

Aston (VIC), Banks (NSW), Barker (SA), Barton (NSW), Batman (VIC), Bennelong (NSW), Berowra (NSW), Blaxland (NSW), Bradfield (NSW), Brand (WA), Boothby (SA), Calare (NSW), Calwell (VIC), Canberra (ACT), Charlton (NSW), Chifley (NSW), Cook (NSW), Corio (VIC), Cowper (NSW), Cunningham (NSW), Curtin (WA), Deakin (VIC), Fadden (QLD), Fairfax (QLD), Farrer (NSW), Forrest (WA), Fowler (NSW), Fraser (ACT), Fremantle (WA), Gippsland (VIC), Goldstein (VIC), Gorton (VIC)**, Grayndler (NSW), Groom (QLD), Higgins (VIC), Holt (VIC), Hotham (VIC), Hume (NSW)***, Hunter (NSW), Indi (VIC), Jagajaga (VIC), Kennedy (QLD), Kingsford Smith (NSW), Kooyong (VIC), Lalor (VIC), Lyne (NSW), Lyons (TAS), Mackellar (NSW), Mallee (VIC), Maranoa (QLD), Mayo (SA), McPherson (QLD), Melbourne (VIC), Melbourne Ports (VIC), Menzies (VIC), Mitchell (NSW), Moncrieff (QLD), Murray (VIC), New England (NSW), Newcastle (NSW), North Sydney (NSW), Oxley (QLD), Parkes (NSW), Pearce (WA), Perth (WA), Port Adelaide (SA), Rankin (QLD), Reid (NSW), Riverina (NSW), Ryan (QLD), Scullin (VIC), Shortland (NSW), Sturt (SA), Sydney (NSW), Tangney (WA), Throsby (NSW), Wannon (VIC), Warringah (NSW), Watson (NSW), Wentworth (NSW), Werriwa (NSW), Wide Bay (QLD), Wills (VIC).

Tossups

Bass (TAS), Bonner (QLD), Brisbane (QLD), Cowan (WA), Dobell (NSW), Durack (WA), Flynn (QLD), Hasluck (WA), Kingston (SA), La Trobe (VIC), Lilley (QLD), McMahon (NSW), Moreton (QLD), Richmond (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Wright (QLD).

Taking the bastions as the base that each party needs to build upon, the Labor and Liberal Parties have 37 seats each. Including the 8 Nationals and single Katter’s Australian Party electoral district (Katter’s own division of Kennedy) the Coalition looks to be in a slightly better position, but it is still a long sprint to get to the required 76 seats needed for a majority. By current polling this is shaping up to be a fairly balanced election, so we might also consider most of the standard seats as rather firm. If so, this gives the Coalition another 11 seats – all Liberal – and the ALP 7. 20 of the remaining 50 seats will allow the Coalition to make a majority in coalition with Katter, and 21 seats will allow them to rule in their own right. Given that 19 are Liberal leaning and two are National leaning, the ALP will need to retain its current critical seats, pick up all the tossups and then some to take power. This is partly because two of the Independents who gave Labor their support to form government are retiring in otherwise safe Coalition seats, and partly because of a strong anti-ALP swing after dropping Prime Minister Rudd. This was particularly strong in his home state of Queensland – note that all of the critical Queensland seats are leaning to the LNQ. This is based on historical data, and if a pro-ALP correction in Queensland can bring some of these seats over the line then Labor is still in with a chance.

*Griffith (QLD) is a Category 2 seat only in technical terms. This is Kevin Rudd’s seat, and it would be highly unusual for the PM to be at risk of losing his or her seat. That being said, this is exactly what happened in 2007 when Rudd won office the first time…

**Gorton (VIC) is considered a bastion for the ALP, having been won by that party since the seat was created in 2004, being composed entirely of state Labor seats and with a margin in excess of 20%. While it is too early to determine the stability of the seat, the history lends itself to a variable or stable assessment rather than a volatile one. This makes Gorton a Category 3 seat.

***Hume (NSW) was listed as ‘volatile’. After further consideration I have counted this as ‘variable’, raising Hume from a standard seat to a Liberal bastion.

District Run-Down (6 of 6) - Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

Today was scheduled to be the busiest day in our electoral run-down calendar in as much as we will be looking at both territories as well as Tasmania, although this gives a sum total of 9 seats, which is less than any other week. Unfortunately, due to several complications, the New South Wales run down has been postponed to this weekend as well. Enjoy the datastorm!

      June 15th: South Australia (X)
      June 22nd: Western Australia (X)
      June 29th: Victoria (X)
      July 6th: Queensland (X)
July 21st: New South Wales
July 20th: Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

How to Read These Summaries:

Incumbent: Incumbent lists the current member for the seat and their current party.

Incumbent/Party Run: Incumbent run provides the number of elections won by the current member, and the years of those elections in parentheses. By-elections are ignored.

A second line may be present and indicate the number of elections won by the current member's party, if this is different to the number won by the current member. Again the years of those elections in parentheses, and again by-elections are ignored.

2010 Margin (TPP): This is the margin by which the seat was won after the last redistribution of preferences in the 2010 federal election, and who this margin was against.

Electoral History: A list of previous incumbent parties from the foundation of the seat to the present.

Longest Electoral Run: The most elections won in a row in this seat by one party, with the years of those elections in parentheses and the party which won the seat in those elections.

State/Territory Incumbents: The Tasmanian/ACT incumbents within this federal seat. The incumbent's names are coloured according to their party (blue for Liberals, red for ALP, green for Greens and grey for Independents). The last lower house election in Tasmania was in 2010; the last territorial election in the ACT was held in 2012. Incumbents are listed in the order they reached the Hare-Clark Quota.
Territory Divisions: The NT territorial seats within this federal seat. The seat names are coloured according to their current incumbent (blue for Liberals, red for ALP, and grey for Independents). The last territorial election in the NT was held in 2012.

Assessment: An assessment of the seats political history - that is, whether the seat is traditionally of one party or another. This is only approximated from the data here, does not constitute a prediction and may differ from the current incumbent's party.

Tasmania:

The economy of Tasmania is powered by tourism -- including, unusually, a large number of tourists from Australia -- and more controversially forestry and other primary sector industries (source). The state has a bicameral government, and the last Legislative Assembly (lower house) election was in 2010. The Tasmanian Legislative Assembly is divided into five ... well ... divisions directly equivalent to the Federal five seats. Each contains a further five state seats (25 in all). Elections are held for the entire Federal division, rather than seat-by-seat, using the Hare-Clark system. In some ways this is very similar to how the Federal Senate and various state upper houses are elected, in that a single transferable vote system is applied across a wide area (e.g. an entire state) to elect several people for that area. Ballot order in Tasmania is randomised to ensure Donkey Voting has at most a very limited impact.

The Tasmanian Legislative Council (upper house) is, on the other hand, elected like most lower houses -- on a seat-by-seat basis. These seats are up for election every six years, but staggered so that two or three seats are filled every year.

In 2010 each Federal division in Tasmania elected precisely two candidates from the Labor Party, two from the Liberal Party and one from the Greens. This makes 10 seats for both the Labor and Liberal parties, 3 short of the necessary 13 seat majority, with the Greens holding the balance of power. Currently in the Legislative Council (upper house) sit 2 Liberal councillors, 1 ALP member and 12 Independents.

The state contains 5 federal electoral districts, and as a state elects 6 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

Bass:

Incumbent: Geoff Lyons (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
2 Elections won (2007 - Present) 

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.74% against LIB

Electoral History: 1903–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: IND
1910–1916: ALP
1916–1917: National Labor Party*
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1949: ALP
1949–1954: LIB
1954–1975: ALP
1975–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP
2004–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present) - ALP

State Incumbents: Michael Ferguson, Michelle O'Byrne, Peter Gutwein, Brian Wightman and Kim Booth.
Assessment: Volatile, tossup

 

Braddon:

Incumbent: Sid Sidebottom (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.48% against LIB

Electoral History: 1955–1958: LIB
1958–1975: ALP 
1975–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP 
2004–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1975 - 1998) - LIB

State Incumbents: Bryan Green, Jeremy Rockliff, Brenton Best, Adam Brooks and Paul O'Halloran.
Assessment: Volatile, leaning ALP

 

Denison:

Incumbent: Andrew Wilkie (IND)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.12% against ALP

Electoral History: 1903–1906: Protectionist Party
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal*
1910–1917: ALP
1917–1922: Nationalist Party
1922–1925: ALP 
1925–1928: Nationalist Party
1928–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1940: ALP
1940–1943: United Australia Party
1943–1949: ALP
1949–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1987: LIB
1987–2010: ALP
2010–present: IND

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1949 - 1972) - LIB

State Incumbents: Cassy O'Connor, David Bartlett (replaced by Graeme Sturges, 2011), Matthew Groom, Scott Bacon and Elise Archer.
Assessment: Volatile, leaning ALP

 

Franklin:

Incumbent: Julie Collins (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.82% against LIB

Electoral History: 1903–1906: Revenue Tariff Party
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party
1917–1920: Nationalist Party
1920–1922: Country Party**
1922–1928: Nationalist Party
1928–1929: IND
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1946: ALP
1946–1969: LIB
1969–1975: ALP
1975–1993: LIB
1993–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1946 - 1969) - LIB

State Incumbents: Will Hodgman, Nick McKim, Lara Giddings, David O'Byrne and Jacquie Petrusma.
Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

 

Lyons:

Incumbent: Dick Adams (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 12.29% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984–1993: LIB
1993–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present) - ALP

State Incumbents: Tim Morris, Rene Hidding, Mark Shelton, Michael Polley and Rebecca White.
Assessment: Stable, safe ALP

Northern Territory:

Mining is the driving force behind the economy of the N.T., although tourism is also a major source of income (source). The terriotry has a unicameral government last elected in 2012 and up for reelection in 2016. The NT government contains 25 seats, filled through a full-preference, instant run-off system much like that familiar to all Australians for the Federal lower house.

The Liberal Party, represented in the territory by the CLP, holds 16 of the 25 seats, with Labor retaining 8. The last seat is Independent. The Northern Territory contains 2 federal electoral districts, and as a territory elects only 2 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

Lingiari:

Incumbent: Warren Snowdon (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.70% against CLP

Electoral History: 2001–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Arafura, Araluen, Arnhem, Barkly, Braitling, Daly, Goyder, Greatorex, Katherine, Namatjira, part of Nelson, Nhulunbuy and Stuart.
Assessment: Stable, leaning ALP

 

Solomon:

Incumbent: Natasha Griggs (CLP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.75% against ALP

Electoral History: 2001–2007: CLP
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: CLP

Longest Electoral Run: 2 Elections won (2001 - 2007) - CLP

State Divisions: Blain, Brennan, Casuarina, Drysdale, Fannie Bay, Fong Lim, Johnston, Karama, part of Nelson, Nightcliff, Port Darwin, Sanderson and Wanguri.
Assessment: Volatile, Leaning CLP

Australian Capital Territory:

The economy of the ACT is, of course, largely driven by services to the Federal Government and the other national institutions based in Canberra. The territory has a unicameral government last elected in 2012 and up for reelection in 2016. The ACT government contains 17 members, elected through the Hare-Clark system, similar to Tasmania's Legislative Assembly. These seats are divided into two five-seat and one seven-seat districts.

The Labor and Liberal Parties are both represented by 8 people in the government. The last seat is Greens. The ACT contains 2 federal electoral districts, and as a territory elects only 2 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

Canberra:

Incumbent: Gai Brodtmann (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 9.15% against LIB

Electoral History: 1974–1975: ALP 
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1995: ALP 
1995–1996: LIB
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 6 Elections won (1980-1995) - ALP, (1996 - Present) - ALPState Incumbents: Ginninderra - Yvette Berry, Chris Bourke, Alistair Coe, Vicki Dunne and Mary Porter.
Molonglo - Andrew Barr, Simon Corbell, Steve Doszpot, Katy Gallagher, Jeremy Hanson, Giulia Jones, Shane Rattenbury.
Brindabella - Joy Burch, Mick Gentleman, Zed Seselja (replaced by Nicole Lawder, 2011), Brendan Smyth and Andrew Wall.
Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

 

Fraser:

Incumbent: Andrew Leigh (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
15 Elections won (1974 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 14.20% against LIB

Electoral History: 1974–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 15 Elections won (1974 - Present) - ALP
State Incumbents: Ginninderra - Yvette Berry, Chris Bourke, Alistair Coe, Vicki Dunne and Mary Porter.
Molonglo - Andrew Barr, Simon Corbell, Steve Doszpot, Katy Gallagher, Jeremy Hanson, Giulia Jones, Shane Rattenbury.Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

* Although listed in blue as a predecessor of the modern Liberal National Party of Queensland, it is important to note that these parties are break-away groups and originally part of the Labor Party. Thus they cannot be viewed as entirely aligned with the modern Labor or Liberal positions. The same non-equivalence is true -- though to a lesser extent -- with the other, now defunct, historical parties.

** Predecessor of the modern National Party

Appologies

We apologise for the delay in this weeks scheduled blog post. This is result of limited computer access last week, the number of seats in NSW and a sudden cold that has descended upon me. I will have this post up ASAP, although this may be next weekend. Regardless, the Tasmania & Territories rundown is still expected to go up as per the old timetable.