Normally we take the polled swing from last election, add that to the pendulum and start from there. This year, though, the polling is basically exactly where the election landed - negligible swing on a two-party-preferred basis!
There's a little more variation at the primary vote level, but even that has the 2022 result well inside the recent variation:
That's boring - our prediction is just a copy-paste of the 2022 results.
So, let's try something else. At the very least, we don't seem to be looking at much of a swing, so we can lock in any seats classified as "fairly safe" (i.e. margins > 6 percentage points):
Next, we're luck to have a lot of seat-by-seat polling. Let's add in everyone where that polling has been giving a consistent result:
And lastly, let's look at the history of the much-more-numerous-than-usual remaining seats, and a general gut feel, to finish us off (the reason this post is so down-to-the-wire):
Banks – LIB
Traditionally a Labor seat, Banks was won in 2013 by David
Coleman who continues to contest the seat. Having weathered the swings back and
forth since the end of the Rudd-Gillard years, the Liberals are probably resilient
enough to hold on here.
Bass – LIB
While less robust for the Liberals in modern time, Bass has
also has a less stalwart Labor history in its early days. While this will
surely be a close one, I think Bridget Archer’s incumbency and the lack of expected
major swings in general can hold this one for the Liberals.
Blair – ALP
Shayne Neumann won Blair with the
Kevin Rudd landslide of 2007 and hasn’t lost it over the following almost-two-decades.
Running again, that streak could well continue.
Bradfield – IND
Bradfield has been Liberal since its inception in 1949. It’s
once of those seats where Labor has such a low chance of winning, it’s feasible
for an independent to out-place them on primary vote, pick up their preferences
and then vault into a winning position. This nearly happened in 2022 for
Nicolette Boele, who is contesting the seat again this year. With, if anything,
a slight swing this year to minor parties and independents, she may well take
the seat this time.
Brisbane – ALP
Brisbane has moved about historically between Labor and
Liberals, and last election the Greens finally won. As an inner city seat, it
is a strong option for the Greens, but the major parties may have seen it as
winnable too and put a lot of resources in here. If so, the Australian pattern
of one-term Geens members may continue, and their preferences when defeated
would likely get Labor over the line.
Bullwinkel – LIB
Bullwinkel is a new seat, but is made of parts of Hasluck
and Swan, with mixed voting histories, as well as more rural Coalition strongholds
of Canning, Durack and O’Connor. Though nominally held by Labour this is
untested, and at the recent state election a number of seats in this area were won
by Liberals or Nationals despite a strong Labor result elsewhere.
Calare – IND
Calare has been won by Nationals and Independents since
1996. In 2022 it was won by Andrew Gee for the Nationals against Independent
Kate Hook. Now Gee is an Independent, Hook is running again and the Nationals
have fielded Sam Farraway, making for an interesting three-way race. Preferences
will be unpredictable and chaotic. Polling in the seat suggests the Nats can
beat Hook again, but will struggle to beat Gee.
Casey – LIB
Liberal since 1984, and with 2025 not poised to be a year of
shock upsets, expect the Liberals to take this one.
Chisholm – Tossup
History gives little instruction in Chisholm. I’ve tried not
to do this in recent years given the ultimately low stakes on this blog, but I
can only call this with a coin-flip so let’s call it as it is – a tossup – and hope
it doesn’t come down to this seat in the final prediction.
Cowper – NAT
National since 1963. National again. Only Independent Cas
Heise stands a chance at unseating them, and didn’t do it in 2022, so will have
to fight very hard to pull it off this time around.
Curtin – IND
The seat has only ever been Liberal or Independent. Independent
Kate Chaney took the seat last election, and with greater name recognition and
a high media profile, she’ll likely keep it.
Deakin – ALP
The closest seat in the race, if any seat will flip this is
the one to bet on. So I will – ALP to take Deakin from the Liberals.
Dickson – LNP
It’s a close one, it’s a hugely contentious one, but
ultimately the Liberals will have put in whatever resources it takes to keep their
leader, Peter Dutton, in his seat.
Forrest – LIB
Liberal since 1972, there is no real suggestion ALP can take
this. Some speculation has been put behind prominent Independent Sue Chapman,
but I think that’s a tough ask this year when the 2PP is still considered to be
Liberal vs Labor.
Fowler – IND
Suggestions the Labor could regain the seat from Independent
Dai Le are not unreasonable, but certainly the less likely outcome in my view.
Goldstein – IND
Likewise, Liberal winning seats back from Independent Zoe
Daniel is a big ask.
Griffith – ALP
A three-way race between Labor, Liberal and Greens will be
unpredictable, and all three parties want this seat. Ultimately, if Labor falls
out first, they’ll preference Greens, while you’d expect both Greens and
Liberals to preference Labor over each other, giving Labor the upper edge in a
game of pure chance (which an election never is).
Hunter – ALP
Labor since 1910. Labor Again.
Kooyong – IND
I don’t think the major parties have done themselves any
favours this year in trying to oust Independents like Monique Ryan.
Lingiari – ALP
A tight one to be sure, but Lingiari has been Labor, holding
out against the Country Liberals, since it’s start in 2001.
Lyons – Tossup
What can I say. It’s a tough one.
Mackellar – IND
The fight between Liberal and Labor has probably reduced
both parties in the eyes of voters, which will continue to play well of
incumbent Independent Sophie Scamps.
McEwen – ALP
McEwen’s a weird one historically. Labor couldn’t win it in
Rudd’s first popular election, but then did under Gillard. They held on in the
swing back to Liberals and hold it still. Given this tenacity, I don’t expect a
change this year.
Menzies – LIB
A Liberal seat named for the Liberal founder that’s been
Liberal since it was created.
Monash – IND
The mixed polling here arises from the consistent result
that polls framed as Labor v Liberal see the Libs win, and those framed as
Liberal vs Independent incumbent (and former Liberal) Russell Broadbent see the
latter squeeze ahead with a margin of a few percentage points.
Paterson – ALP
A mixed history to be sure, but Meryl Swanson has built a
decent support base over her time in office.
Reid – ALP
A Labor seat with only a small deviation in the 2010s, it’s
a strong chance for Labor. Certainly not a sure thing, but the only reason this
wasn’t a clean sweep on the seat-wide polling was a single 50-50 split result
last year.
Robertson – ALP
A bit of a bellwether seat, given the national results are
expected to return Labor in some form, let’s say the same for Robertson.
Ryan – GRN
I’ve been pretty down on the chances for the Greens so far
(see Brisbane and Griffith), but they really out-did Labor here last time, and
they’ll be sure to scoop up the lion’s share of preferences if that repeats.
Shortland – ALP
Labor since 1949, like Reid the only polling saying
otherwise was reflecting a single 50-50 split.
Sturt - LIB
Liberal since 1972. The most recent local polling suggests a
change here, but I’m not convinced.
Tangney - LIB
Last election was the first time Labor won this seat since
1984. Local polling tends to be breaking their way, and the power of incumbency
shouldn’t be underestimated, but if I always played by the numbers there’s be
no point commenting at all, so I’m going to take the long-shot and say the Libs
could regain this one.
Wannon – LIB
Liberal since 1955, it’s a tall ask to unseat them here.
There is, to be sure, some very strong polling for Independent Alexander Dyson –
up to 61.9% in one case – but I’m not sure that’ll materialise on the ground
today.
Werriwa – ALP
Labor since 1934. Come on.