For the US House of Representatives, there are 435 seats. To keep this short and get this published ahead of polls closing, I’ll be applying a quick and dirty approach: take the national polling for the house (D: 45.7, R:46.9), multiply this by a factor to make the total sum to 100% (D: 49.352, R: 50.748) and add the Cook Partisan Voting Index to the Democrat’s ~49.4% (or subtract for a Republican CPVI). The CPVI measures how much each district favours a party. Because this race is very close to 50:50 in the polls nationally, the result is that all seats have been called for their CPVI, except those rated ‘EVEN’, which come out as R.
In a less balanced race, this may produce some more exciting numbers; here, it looks dull, but we’ve never let dull stop us before!
| DISTRICT | CPVI | From 49.352 |
| Alabama 1 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Alabama 2 | R+17 | 32.35% |
| Alabama 3 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Alabama 4 | R+33 | 16.35% |
| Alabama 5 | R+17 | 32.35% |
| Alabama 6 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Alabama 7 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| Alaska at-large | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Arizona 1 | R+2 | 47.35% |
| Arizona 2 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| Arizona 3 | D+24 | 73.35% |
| Arizona 4 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| Arizona 5 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Arizona 6 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Arizona 7 | D+15 | 64.35% |
| Arizona 8 | R+10 | 39.35% |
| Arizona 9 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Arkansas 1 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Arkansas 2 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Arkansas 3 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Arkansas 4 | R+20 | 29.35% |
| California 1 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| California 2 | D+23 | 72.35% |
| California 3 | R+4 | 45.35% |
| California 4 | D+17 | 66.35% |
| California 5 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| California 6 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| California 7 | D+17 | 66.35% |
| California 8 | D+26 | 75.35% |
| California 9 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| California 10 | D+18 | 67.35% |
| California 11 | D+37 | 86.35% |
| California 12 | D+40 | 89.35% |
| California 13 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| California 14 | D+22 | 71.35% |
| California 15 | D+28 | 77.35% |
| California 16 | D+26 | 75.35% |
| California 17 | D+23 | 72.35% |
| California 18 | D+21 | 70.35% |
| California 19 | D+18 | 67.35% |
| California 20 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| California 21 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| California 22 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| California 23 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| California 24 | D+13 | 62.35% |
| California 25 | D+6 | 55.35% |
| California 26 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| California 27 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| California 28 | D+16 | 65.35% |
| California 29 | D+26 | 75.35% |
| California 30 | D+23 | 72.35% |
| California 31 | D+15 | 64.35% |
| California 32 | D+20 | 69.35% |
| California 33 | D+12 | 61.35% |
| California 34 | D+32 | 81.35% |
| California 35 | D+13 | 62.35% |
| California 36 | D+21 | 70.35% |
| California 37 | D+37 | 86.35% |
| California 38 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| California 39 | D+12 | 61.35% |
| California 40 | R+2 | 47.35% |
| California 41 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| California 42 | D+22 | 71.35% |
| California 43 | D+32 | 81.35% |
| California 44 | D+24 | 73.35% |
| California 45 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| California 46 | D+15 | 64.35% |
| California 47 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| California 48 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| California 49 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| California 50 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| California 51 | D+12 | 61.35% |
| California 52 | D+18 | 67.35% |
| Colorado 1 | D+29 | 78.35% |
| Colorado 2 | D+17 | 66.35% |
| Colorado 3 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| Colorado 4 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Colorado 5 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Colorado 6 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| Colorado 7 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| Colorado 8 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Connecticut 1 | D+12 | 61.35% |
| Connecticut 2 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| Connecticut 3 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| Connecticut 4 | D+13 | 62.35% |
| Connecticut 5 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| Delaware at-large | D+7 | 56.35% |
| Florida 1 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Florida 2 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Florida 3 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Florida 4 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| Florida 5 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Florida 6 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Florida 7 | R+5 | 44.35% |
| Florida 8 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Florida 9 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| Florida 10 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| Florida 11 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Florida 12 | R+17 | 32.35% |
| Florida 13 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| Florida 14 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| Florida 15 | R+4 | 45.35% |
| Florida 16 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| Florida 17 | R+10 | 39.35% |
| Florida 18 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Florida 19 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Florida 20 | D+25 | 74.35% |
| Florida 21 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| Florida 22 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| Florida 23 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| Florida 24 | D+25 | 74.35% |
| Florida 25 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| Florida 26 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Florida 27 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Florida 28 | R+2 | 47.35% |
| Georgia 1 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Georgia 2 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| Georgia 3 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Georgia 4 | D+27 | 76.35% |
| Georgia 5 | D+32 | 81.35% |
| Georgia 6 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Georgia 7 | D+10 | 59.35% |
| Georgia 8 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Georgia 9 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Georgia 10 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Georgia 11 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Georgia 12 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Georgia 13 | D+28 | 77.35% |
| Georgia 14 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Hawaii 1 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| Hawaii 2 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| Idaho 1 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Idaho 2 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Illinois 1 | D+20 | 69.35% |
| Illinois 2 | D+19 | 68.35% |
| Illinois 3 | D+20 | 69.35% |
| Illinois 4 | D+22 | 71.35% |
| Illinois 5 | D+18 | 67.35% |
| Illinois 6 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| Illinois 7 | D+36 | 85.35% |
| Illinois 8 | D+6 | 55.35% |
| Illinois 9 | D+19 | 68.35% |
| Illinois 10 | D+11 | 60.35% |
| Illinois 11 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| Illinois 12 | R+24 | 25.35% |
| Illinois 13 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| Illinois 14 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| Illinois 15 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Illinois 16 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Illinois 17 | D+1 | 50.35% |
| Indiana 1 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| Indiana 2 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Indiana 3 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Indiana 4 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Indiana 5 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Indiana 6 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Indiana 7 | D+19 | 68.35% |
| Indiana 8 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Indiana 9 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Iowa 1 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Iowa 2 | R+4 | 45.35% |
| Iowa 3 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Iowa 4 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Kansas 1 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Kansas 2 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Kansas 3 | D+1 | 50.35% |
| Kansas 4 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Kentucky 1 | R+24 | 25.35% |
| Kentucky 2 | R+21 | 28.35% |
| Kentucky 3 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| Kentucky 4 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Kentucky 5 | R+32 | 17.35% |
| Kentucky 6 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Louisiana 1 | R+23 | 26.35% |
| Louisiana 2 | D+25 | 74.35% |
| Louisiana 3 | R+21 | 28.35% |
| Louisiana 4 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Louisiana 5 | R+17 | 32.35% |
| Louisiana 6 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Maine 1 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| Maine 2 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| Maryland 1 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Maryland 2 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| Maryland 3 | D+10 | 59.35% |
| Maryland 4 | D+40 | 89.35% |
| Maryland 5 | D+15 | 64.35% |
| Maryland 6 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| Maryland 7 | D+30 | 79.35% |
| Maryland 8 | D+29 | 78.35% |
| Massachusetts 1 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| Massachusetts 2 | D+13 | 62.35% |
| Massachusetts 3 | D+11 | 60.35% |
| Massachusetts 4 | D+12 | 61.35% |
| Massachusetts 5 | D+23 | 72.35% |
| Massachusetts 6 | D+11 | 60.35% |
| Massachusetts 7 | D+35 | 84.35% |
| Massachusetts 8 | D+15 | 64.35% |
| Massachusetts 9 | D+6 | 55.35% |
| Michigan 1 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Michigan 2 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Michigan 3 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Michigan 4 | R+5 | 44.35% |
| Michigan 5 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Michigan 6 | D+11 | 60.35% |
| Michigan 7 | R+2 | 47.35% |
| Michigan 8 | R+1 | 48.35% |
| Michigan 9 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Michigan 10 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Michigan 11 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| Michigan 12 | D+23 | 72.35% |
| Michigan 13 | D+23 | 72.35% |
| Minnesota 1 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| Minnesota 2 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Minnesota 3 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| Minnesota 4 | D+17 | 66.35% |
| Minnesota 5 | D+30 | 79.35% |
| Minnesota 6 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| Minnesota 7 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Minnesota 8 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Mississippi 1 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Mississippi 2 | D+11 | 60.35% |
| Mississippi 3 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Mississippi 4 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Missouri 1 | D+27 | 76.35% |
| Missouri 2 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| Missouri 3 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Missouri 4 | R+23 | 26.35% |
| Missouri 5 | D+11 | 60.35% |
| Missouri 6 | R+21 | 28.35% |
| Missouri 7 | R+24 | 25.35% |
| Missouri 8 | R+28 | 21.35% |
| Montana 1 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| Montana 2 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Nebraska 1 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Nebraska 2 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Nebraska 3 | R+29 | 20.35% |
| Nevada 1 | D+1 | 50.35% |
| Nevada 2 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Nevada 3 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Nevada 4 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| New Hampshire 1 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| New Jersey 1 | D+10 | 59.35% |
| New Jersey 2 | R+5 | 44.35% |
| New Jersey 3 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| New Jersey 4 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| New Jersey 5 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| New Jersey 6 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| New Jersey 7 | R+1 | 48.35% |
| New Jersey 8 | D+22 | 71.35% |
| New Jersey 9 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| New Jersey 10 | D+30 | 79.35% |
| New Jersey 11 | D+6 | 55.35% |
| New Jersey 12 | D+12 | 61.35% |
| New Mexico 1 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| New Mexico 2 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| New Mexico 3 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| New York 1 | R+4 | 45.35% |
| New York 2 | R+4 | 45.35% |
| New York 3 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| New York 4 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| New York 5 | D+32 | 81.35% |
| New York 6 | D+17 | 66.35% |
| New York 7 | D+32 | 81.35% |
| New York 8 | D+25 | 74.35% |
| New York 9 | D+27 | 76.35% |
| New York 10 | D+36 | 85.35% |
| New York 11 | R+5 | 44.35% |
| New York 12 | D+35 | 84.35% |
| New York 13 | D+40 | 89.35% |
| New York 14 | D+30 | 79.35% |
| New York 15 | D+37 | 86.35% |
| New York 16 | D+21 | 70.35% |
| New York 17 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| New York 18 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| New York 19 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| New York 20 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| New York 21 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| New York 22 | R+1 | 48.35% |
| New York 23 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| New York 24 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| New York 25 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| New York 26 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| North Carolina 1 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| North Carolina 2 | D+12 | 61.35% |
| North Carolina 3 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| North Carolina 4 | D+16 | 65.35% |
| North Carolina 5 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| North Carolina 6 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| North Carolina 7 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| North Carolina 8 | R+20 | 29.35% |
| North Carolina 9 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| North Carolina 10 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| North Carolina 11 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| North Carolina 12 | D+13 | 62.35% |
| North Carolina 13 | R+2 | 47.35% |
| North Carolina 14 | D+6 | 55.35% |
| North Dakota at-large | R+20 | 29.35% |
| Ohio 1 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Ohio 2 | R+25 | 24.35% |
| Ohio 3 | D+20 | 69.35% |
| Ohio 4 | R+20 | 29.35% |
| Ohio 5 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Ohio 6 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Ohio 7 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| Ohio 8 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Ohio 9 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Ohio 10 | R+4 | 45.35% |
| Ohio 11 | D+30 | 79.35% |
| Ohio 12 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Ohio 13 | R+1 | 48.35% |
| Ohio 14 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Ohio 15 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| Oklahoma 1 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Oklahoma 2 | R+29 | 20.35% |
| Oklahoma 3 | R+24 | 25.35% |
| Oklahoma 4 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Oklahoma 5 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| Oregon 1 | D+18 | 67.35% |
| Oregon 2 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Oregon 3 | D+22 | 71.35% |
| Oregon 4 | D+4 | 53.35% |
| Oregon 5 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Oregon 6 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| Pennsylvania 1 | EVEN | 49.35% |
| Pennsylvania 2 | D+20 | 69.35% |
| Pennsylvania 3 | D+39 | 88.35% |
| Pennsylvania 4 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| Pennsylvania 5 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| Pennsylvania 6 | D+5 | 54.35% |
| Pennsylvania 7 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Pennsylvania 8 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Pennsylvania 9 | R+21 | 28.35% |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+5 | 44.35% |
| Pennsylvania 11 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Pennsylvania 12 | D+8 | 57.35% |
| Pennsylvania 13 | R+25 | 24.35% |
| Pennsylvania 14 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Pennsylvania 15 | R+21 | 28.35% |
| Pennsylvania 16 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Pennsylvania 17 | R+1 | 48.35% |
| Rhode Island 1 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| Rhode Island 2 | D+2 | 51.35% |
| South Carolina 1 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| South Carolina 2 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| South Carolina 3 | R+21 | 28.35% |
| South Carolina 4 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| South Carolina 5 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| South Carolina 6 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| South Carolina 7 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| South Dakota at-large | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Tennessee 1 | R+30 | 19.35% |
| Tennessee 2 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Tennessee 3 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Tennessee 4 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Tennessee 5 | R+9 | 40.35% |
| Tennessee 6 | R+17 | 32.35% |
| Tennessee 7 | R+10 | 39.35% |
| Tennessee 8 | R+21 | 28.35% |
| Tennessee 9 | D+22 | 71.35% |
| Texas 1 | R+26 | 23.35% |
| Texas 2 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Texas 3 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Texas 4 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Texas 5 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Texas 6 | R+15 | 34.35% |
| Texas 7 | D+13 | 62.35% |
| Texas 8 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Texas 9 | D+26 | 75.35% |
| Texas 10 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Texas 11 | R+23 | 26.35% |
| Texas 12 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| Texas 13 | R+26 | 23.35% |
| Texas 14 | R+17 | 32.35% |
| Texas 15 | R+1 | 48.35% |
| Texas 16 | D+17 | 66.35% |
| Texas 17 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Texas 18 | D+23 | 72.35% |
| Texas 19 | R+26 | 23.35% |
| Texas 20 | D+15 | 64.35% |
| Texas 21 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Texas 22 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Texas 23 | R+5 | 44.35% |
| Texas 24 | R+10 | 39.35% |
| Texas 25 | R+19 | 30.35% |
| Texas 26 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Texas 27 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Texas 28 | D+3 | 52.35% |
| Texas 29 | D+18 | 67.35% |
| Texas 30 | D+27 | 76.35% |
| Texas 31 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Texas 32 | D+14 | 63.35% |
| Texas 33 | D+24 | 73.35% |
| Texas 34 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| Texas 35 | D+21 | 70.35% |
| Texas 36 | R+18 | 31.35% |
| Texas 37 | D+24 | 73.35% |
| Texas 38 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| Utah 1 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| Utah 2 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Utah 3 | R+13 | 36.35% |
| Utah 4 | R+16 | 33.35% |
| Vermont at-large | D+16 | 65.35% |
| Virginia 1 | R+6 | 43.35% |
| Virginia 2 | R+2 | 47.35% |
| Virginia 3 | D+17 | 66.35% |
| Virginia 4 | D+16 | 65.35% |
| Virginia 5 | R+7 | 42.35% |
| Virginia 6 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Virginia 7 | D+1 | 50.35% |
| Virginia 8 | D+26 | 75.35% |
| Virginia 9 | R+23 | 26.35% |
| Virginia 10 | D+6 | 55.35% |
| Virginia 11 | D+18 | 67.35% |
| Washington 1 | D+13 | 62.35% |
| Washington 2 | D+9 | 58.35% |
| Washington 3 | R+5 | 44.35% |
| Washington 4 | R+11 | 38.35% |
| Washington 5 | R+8 | 41.35% |
| Washington 6 | D+6 | 55.35% |
| Washington 7 | D+36 | 85.35% |
| Washington 8 | D+1 | 50.35% |
| Washington 9 | D+21 | 70.35% |
| Washington 10 | D+7 | 56.35% |
| West Virginia 1 | R+23 | 26.35% |
| West Virginia 2 | R+22 | 27.35% |
| Wisconsin 1 | R+3 | 46.35% |
| Wisconsin 2 | D+19 | 68.35% |
| Wisconsin 3 | R+4 | 45.35% |
| Wisconsin 4 | D+25 | 74.35% |
| Wisconsin 5 | R+14 | 35.35% |
| Wisconsin 6 | R+10 | 39.35% |
| Wisconsin 7 | R+12 | 37.35% |
| Wisconsin 8 | R+10 | 39.35% |
| Wyoming at-large | R+25 | 24.35% |
For those looking for a simple count, this comes to 202 Democrats and 233 Republicans, a loss of 20 seats for the former and a gain of the control of the house for the later.
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