But there's more!

That only accounts for 71 of the 120(?) seats in the NZ parliament, though!

The remaining seats will be decided by a national "party vote", and parties are eligible where they either (1) win an electorate or (2) poll over 5%. In addition to the predicted winners above (Labour, National and ACT), all of whom the latest poll has winning over 5% across New Zealand, the latest poll has the greens winning 6.3%:

Labour	National	ACT	Green
45.8%	31.1%	7.4%	6.3%

The theoretical 120 seats are calculated based on the actual polling numbers through the Webster/Sainte-Laguë method, simulated below on the assumption that 2.5 million votes are cast (rounding down from 2017 numbers):

Votes					Seats
Labour	National	ACT	Green		Labour	National	ACT	Green
1145000	777500	185000	157500		1	0	0	0
381667	777500	185000	157500		1	1	0	0
381667	259167	185000	157500		2	1	0	0
229000	259167	185000	157500		2	2	0	0
229000	155500	185000	157500		3	2	0	0
163571	155500	185000	157500		3	2	1	0
163571	155500	61667	157500		4	2	1	0
127222	155500	61667	157500		4	2	1	1
127222	155500	61667	52500		4	3	1	1
127222	111071	61667	52500		5	3	1	1
104091	111071	61667	52500		5	4	1	1
104091	86389	61667	52500		6	4	1	1
88077	86389	61667	52500		7	4	1	1
76333	86389	61667	52500		7	5	1	1
76333	70682	61667	52500		8	5	1	1
67353	70682	61667	52500		8	6	1	1
67353	59808	61667	52500		9	6	1	1
60263	59808	61667	52500		9	6	2	1
60263	59808	37000	52500		10	6	2	1
54524	59808	37000	52500		10	7	2	1
54524	51833	37000	52500		11	7	2	1
49783	51833	37000	52500		11	7	2	2
49783	51833	37000	31500		11	8	2	2
49783	45735	37000	31500		12	8	2	2
45800	45735	37000	31500		13	8	2	2
42407	45735	37000	31500		13	9	2	2
42407	40921	37000	31500		14	9	2	2
39483	40921	37000	31500		14	10	2	2
39483	37024	37000	31500		15	10	2	2
36935	37024	37000	31500		15	11	2	2
36935	33804	37000	31500		15	11	3	2
36935	33804	26429	31500		16	11	3	2
34697	33804	26429	31500		17	11	3	2
32714	33804	26429	31500		17	12	3	2
32714	31100	26429	31500		18	12	3	2
30946	31100	26429	31500		18	12	3	3
30946	31100	26429	22500		18	13	3	3
30946	28796	26429	22500		19	13	3	3
29359	28796	26429	22500		20	13	3	3
27927	28796	26429	22500		20	14	3	3
27927	26810	26429	22500		21	14	3	3
26628	26810	26429	22500		21	15	3	3
26628	25081	26429	22500		22	15	3	3
25444	25081	26429	22500		22	15	4	3
25444	25081	20556	22500		23	15	4	3
24362	25081	20556	22500		23	16	4	3
24362	23561	20556	22500		24	16	4	3
23367	23561	20556	22500		24	17	4	3
23367	22214	20556	22500		25	17	4	3
22451	22214	20556	22500		25	17	4	4
22451	22214	20556	17500		26	17	4	4
21604	22214	20556	17500		26	18	4	4
21604	21014	20556	17500		27	18	4	4
20818	21014	20556	17500		27	19	4	4
20818	19936	20556	17500		28	19	4	4
20088	19936	20556	17500		28	19	5	4
20088	19936	16818	17500		29	19	5	4
19407	19936	16818	17500		29	20	5	4
19407	18963	16818	17500		30	20	5	4
18770	18963	16818	17500		30	21	5	4
18770	18081	16818	17500		31	21	5	4
18175	18081	16818	17500		32	21	5	4
17615	18081	16818	17500		32	22	5	4
17615	17278	16818	17500		33	22	5	4
17090	17278	16818	17500		33	22	5	5
17090	17278	16818	14318		33	23	5	5
17090	16543	16818	14318		34	23	5	5
16594	16543	16818	14318		34	23	6	5
16594	16543	14231	14318		35	23	6	5
16127	16543	14231	14318		35	24	6	5
16127	15867	14231	14318		36	24	6	5
15685	15867	14231	14318		36	25	6	5
15685	15245	14231	14318		37	25	6	5
15267	15245	14231	14318		38	25	6	5
14870	15245	14231	14318		38	26	6	5
14870	14670	14231	14318		39	26	6	5
14494	14670	14231	14318		39	27	6	5
14494	14136	14231	14318		40	27	6	5
14136	14136	14231	14318		40	27	6	6
14136	14136	14231	12115		40	27	7	6
14136	14136	12333	12115		40	28	7	6
14136	13640	12333	12115		41	28	7	6
13795	13640	12333	12115		42	28	7	6
13471	13640	12333	12115		42	29	7	6
13471	13178	12333	12115		43	29	7	6
13161	13178	12333	12115		43	30	7	6
13161	12746	12333	12115		44	30	7	6
12865	12746	12333	12115		45	30	7	6
12582	12746	12333	12115		45	31	7	6
12582	12341	12333	12115		46	31	7	6
12312	12341	12333	12115		46	32	7	6
12312	11962	12333	12115		46	32	8	6
12312	11962	10882	12115		47	32	8	6
12053	11962	10882	12115		47	32	8	7
12053	11962	10882	10500		48	32	8	7
11804	11962	10882	10500		48	33	8	7
11804	11604	10882	10500		49	33	8	7
11566	11604	10882	10500		49	34	8	7
11566	11268	10882	10500		50	34	8	7
11337	11268	10882	10500		51	34	8	7
11117	11268	10882	10500		51	35	8	7
11117	10951	10882	10500		52	35	8	7
10905	10951	10882	10500		52	36	8	7
10905	10651	10882	10500		53	36	8	7
10701	10651	10882	10500		53	36	9	7
10701	10651	9737	10500		54	36	9	7
10505	10651	9737	10500		54	37	9	7
10505	10367	9737	10500		55	37	9	7
10315	10367	9737	10500		55	37	9	8
10315	10367	9737	9265		55	38	9	8
10315	10097	9737	9265		56	38	9	8
10133	10097	9737	9265		57	38	9	8
9957	10097	9737	9265		57	39	9	8
9957	9842	9737	9265		58	39	9	8
9786	9842	9737	9265		58	40	9	8
9786	9599	9737	9265		59	40	9	8
9622	9599	9737	9265		59	40	10	8
9622	9599	8810	9265		60	40	10	8
9463	9599	8810	9265		60	41	10	8
9463	9367	8810	9265		61	41	10	8

This gives Labour 61 seats--the first majority government in NZ since this system was employed--of which 38 are electoral seats. In other words, Labour is awarded an additional 23 seats from this process. Similarly the Nationals will win a further 9, the ACT another 9 and the Greens will win 8 despite claiming no specific electorate.

Final Prediction

Labor has a real shot at setting the historic first Majority government under the Mixed Member Proportional Representation (i.e. since 1994). Even if they fall short, they should be well placed to form minority government, well ahead of the National Party. The fine-grained (but still rough) prediction is:

Labour -- 61 seats (including 38 electoral seats named below)

National -- 41 seats (including 32 named below)

ACT -- 10 Seats (including Epsom)

Greens -- 8 seats.

	Incumbent	Prediction
Auckland Central	National	Labour
Bay of Plenty	National	National
Botany	National	National
Christchurch Central	Labour	Labour
Christchurch East	Labour	Labour
Clutha-Southland	National	National
Coromandel	National	National
Dunedin North	Labour	Labour
Dunedin South	Labour	Labour
East Coast	National	Labour
East Coast Bays	National	National
Epsom	ACT	ACT
Hamilton East	National	Labour
Hamilton West	National	Labour
Hauraki-Waikato	Labour	Labour
Helensville	National	National
Hunua	National	National
Hutt South	National	Labour
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti	Labour	Labour
Ilam	National	National
Invercargill	National	Labour
Kaikōura	National	National
Kelston	Labour	Labour
Mana	Labour	Labour
Māngere	Labour	Labour
Manukau East	Labour	Labour
Manurewa	Labour	Labour
Maungakiekie	National	Labour
Mt Albert	Labour	Labour
Mt Roskill	Labour	Labour
Napier	Labour	Labour
Nelson	National	Labour
New Lynn	Labour	Labour
New Plymouth	National	Labour
North Shore	National	National
Northcote	National	Labour
Northland	National	National
Ōhariu	Labour	Labour
Ōtaki	National	Labour
Pakuranga	National	National
Palmerston North	Labour	Labour
Papakura	National	Labour
Port Hills	Labour	Labour
Rangitata	National	Labour
Rangitīkei	National	National
Remutaka	Labour	Labour
Rodney	National	National
Rongotai	Labour	Labour
Rotorua	National	Labour
Selwyn	National	National
Tāmaki	National	National
Tāmaki Makaurau	Labour	Labour
Taranaki-King Country	National	National
Taupō	National	National
Tauranga	National	National
Te Atatū	Labour	Labour
Te Tai Hauāuru	Labour	Labour
Te Tai Tokerau	Labour	Labour
Te Tai Tonga	Labour	Labour
Tukituki	National	Labour
Upper Harbour	National	National
Waiariki	Labour	Labour
Waikato	National	National
Waimakariri	National	National
Wairarapa	National	Labour
Waitaki	National	National
Wellington Central	Labour	Labour
West Coast-Tasman	Labour	Labour
Whanganui	National	Labour
Whangarei	National	National
Wigram	Labour	Labour